B Word! Blizzard Watch For The South Shore, South Coast

UPDATE: Blizzard Watch now covers all of Plymouth and Bristol Counties!

*************************************
BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...Southern Rhode Island and east coastal
Massachusetts from Boston to Plymouth.

* HAZARD TYPES...Heavy snow, strong winds, and reduced
visibility.

* ACCUMULATIONS...Snow accumulation of greater than 6 inches
possible along drifting and blowing snow.

* TIMING...Tuesday and Tuesday night.

* IMPACTS...Rapid snow accumulation as well as blowing and
drifting snow may make many roads impassable. There could also
be scattered power outages.

* WINDS...Northeast 25 to 35 mph with gusts over 50 mph.

* TEMPERATURES...In the lower 30s Tuesday.

* VISIBILITIES...One quarter mile or less at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Watch means there is a potential for considerable
falling and/or blowing snow with sustained winds or frequent
gusts over 35 mph, with visibilities below one quarter mile, for
at least 3 hours. Whiteout conditions will be possible, making
travel very dangerous. Be prepared to alter any travel plans.

Please note that Cape Cod and the interior of both Plymouth and Bristol County aren't in the Blizzard mix... yet.

The rest of Southern New England has a Winter Storm Watch.

Also note that the areas with the Blizzard Watch are the areas with (as for now) the lowest forecast snow totals.

Remember, a Blizzard isn't just heavy snow, it involves winds and visibility. As we've pointed out before, you can have a Blizzard with no snow falling at all, but that's an extreme case where you need an iced-over Lake Superior full of dry, fluffy snow and a high wind.

Coastal Flooding will be major and ridiculous. They are forecasting a 2-3 foot storm surge, on what I believe is a 9.9 and then a 10.0 tide on Duxbury Beach on Tuesday morning and Tuesday night. Only an unexpected wind shift will save the South Shore from a major Poseidonistic curb-stomping.

We'll try to embed ourselves somewhere dangerous for the high tides, but no promises. The Cranberry County Magazine Cranmobile barely made it over the Bourne Bridge in the last blizzard, and the house that I usually storm-watch from on Duxbury Beach is rented. We'll do our level best for you, however.

Snow Total Predictions From Local News Stations:

WBZ... " Plan on around a foot of snow for most (give or take a few inches) and maybe two feet.".... don't EVER bitch at me about a vague forecast again, Pam Gardener is getting 6 figures.

WHDH... " I think it’s a lock to say we see a widespread 6″ of snow…  I think it’s a VERY good possibility we see a widespread 10-16″ of snow.  I think it’s also a possibility that we get...closer to 20″ of snow.".... There's your "six to twenty inches" forecast that you see Boston weather girls drop now and then. Brie Eggers may just be in a More Vague contest with Pam Gardener.

WCVB... 12-18" for Emass, 5-10" with some rain for Cape Cod

WFXT... 1-3" with rain on the Cape , 3-6" Plymouth/Bourne/South Coast, 6-8" interior Plymouth/Bristol Counties, 8-12" central/western MA

NECN... 5-15" coast, 10-20" inland

Accuweather... 9.7" in Buzzards Bay by Wednesday AM

Info you may need or want:

Tide Charts

Eversource Outage Map

National Weather Service

Forecast Flood Maps (for hurricanes, but still a useful tool.... maps for all towns in EMass)

NWS Boston Facebook

Nor'easter Blues storm information/reporting Facebook page

Heavy Fog This Morning

There's a Dense Fog Advisory for the South Coast, apparently at least to Bourne.

This is Buttermilk Bay in Bourne, MA.

Here's a mooring buoy at 20 yards, in case you're wondering how thick the fog is.

It should burn off by 9 AM or so.

Blizzard Conditions Possible Tomorrow

BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO
MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY NIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...southeast Massachusetts and Rhode Island.

* HAZARD TYPES...Heavy snow.

* Accumulations...Snow accumulation of 6 to 12 inches.

* TIMING...Snow will begin early Thursday morning and last
through much of the day before ending Thursday evening. Snow
could fall heavy at times and impact both the morning and
evening commutes.

* IMPACTS...Hazardous travel due to snow covered roads and poor
visibilities. Blowing and drifting snow is possible.

* Winds...North 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow means severe winter weather
conditions are expected or occurring. Significant amounts of snow
are forecast that will make travel dangerous. Only travel in an
emergency. If you must travel...keep an extra flashlight...food...
and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.

&&

===================

SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH: (same)

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Not much to add to that. There is a coastal flooding threat, and a high astronomical tide. The tide will be tempered somewhat by the timing of the storm, which will just be warming up for the morning high tide and will be blowing a wave-killing North by the time of the evening tides.

There is a strong possibility that the current Winter Storm Warning will be changed to a Blizzard Warning later this morning or early this afternoon.

We should certainly have the snow for a blizzard, and the winds will be up for most of the day. Both commutes should feel the pain, although I'm currently betting on the evening commute being the bonecrusher.

After ol' Mr. Blizz leaves town, we'll be in for a deep freeze.

We're looking at another snow event for Saturday. That's looking like 3-6", probably closer to the 3. Keep in mind that tomorrow's storm was a 3-6" forecast a few days ago.

We'll be back with an update if need be.

Powerful Nor'easter Hits Today, Coastal Concerns

A powerful nor'easter is sizing up New England, bringing the potential for heavy rain, high winds, power outages and very dangerous seas.

We'll let the National Weather Service tell you:

**********************
Monday Morning Briefing:

The coastal storm that we've been talking about for the past few days is set to arrive today. There is a lot to talk about, so here's a rundown of the potential hazards. Check out the images below for more information.

If you have any questions, feel free to post them here. We'll do our best to answer them as soon as we can.

Winter Weather: Today into Tuesday

- Mix of snow, sleet, and some freezing rain expected across much of western and central MA and northern CT.

- Higher accumulations (2-4") expected across higher terrain near Berkshires and northern Worcester County. There could be as much as 1" of sleet in some areas.

- Less icing is expected than was previously forecast (now under 1/4 inch).

Wind: Strongest Later This Afternoon and Tonight

- East winds gust as high as 60-70 mph along the immediate eastern Massachusetts coast including Cape Ann, coastal Plymouth County, Cape Cod, Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Block Island.

- Gusts of 40-50 mph expected elsewhere, except 30-40 mph in Franklin and Hampshire Counties.

- Strongest winds expected from late this afternoon into tonight, before winds subside quickly Tuesday morning.

Heavy Rain: This Evening into Tuesday Morning

- 1 to 3 inches of rain is expected, with the higher amounts in RI and eastern MA where locally higher amounts possible.

- Potential for significant urban flooding in RI and eastern MA, possibly flooding of small streams as well.

Coastal Flooding: This Evening and Tuesday Morning

- Pockets of minor coastal flooding expected along the eastern MA coast during this evening's high tide. A storm surge of around 2 ft is expected.

- More widespread minor coastal flooding is expected in the same areas with Tuesday morning's high tide, when there could also be pockets of moderate flooding. A storm surge of 3 to perhaps even 4 ft is expected.

- Most favored areas for moderate flooding include Newburyport, Scituate, and possibly Gloucester and Nantucket Harbor.

- Minor coastal flooding is also possible Tuesday morning along parts of the South Coast including Newport, Westerly, and Block Island. Coastal Flood Advisories may be issued for these locations later today.
********************************************************************************

Snow isn't expected anywhere in our reading area. This is good, because 3 inches of precipitation can crank out 2+ feet of snow very easily. Throw in several hours of tropical storm force winds, and we'd be using that B Word which rhymes with lizard.

Instead, we'll get soaking rains, howling winds and pounding surf. The storm should produce 2 fierce tides before the winds shift. Prior to what we previously thought, winds are now forecast to be from the NE at high tide on Tuesday morning, which is bad news for anyone owning a beach house.

Tides are astronomically low, but that will be cancelled out by the 2-4 foot surge. The end result is equal to the worst full moon high tide of any month. After that, it's just a question of how big the waves are when they hit the shore. You can use the math from the chart up at the top to see how the tides will be altered by the surge.

The winds may also take down some power lines, especially when you get closer to the coast. You can check the wind forecast for your area in the picture at the bottom of this article.

Some more NWS stuff. We're doing watches and warnings pertaining to Duxbury, just because...

High Wind Warning

Areal Flood Watch

Coastal Flood Advisory (Monday)

Coastal Flood Watch (Tuesday)

As for us, we plan to take to the road for this storm. The surf will be better on the Cape at the height of the storm, but it might be more practical for us to work the Irish Riviera, maybe Scituate to Plymouth to Sandwich. I may not see my own house for two days.

We'll post our pictures as we get them. Anyone who wishes to contribute can reach us through our Facebook page. We love reader submissions. You're probably a better photographer than ol' Steve here, so you'd have a good chance of taking the best picture used in the article.

We'll be back with an update.

January 2017 Blizzard Pics, Snowfall Totals

Our model Joeyna helps you get the drift of things with this here Blizzard of 2017

Snowfall total in Bourne, near the Bourne Bridge... 17"

The silent white dawn after a heavy snowfall... very Robert Frost, except that Robert Frost probably wasn't hanging around a Quality Inn.

We worked the camera around Bourne and Plymouth. They, and the interior Plymouth County towns like Bridgewater, Wareham and Halifax, were the epicenter of the storm... at least as far as snowfall went.

I was all in on some snowy country lane shots. This is Cedarville.

Of course I went to Marylou's. I'd have shoveled it out myself if I had to...

Let's check some snowfall totals, shall we?

East Bridgewater 19.5″
West Wareham 18.1"
Whitman 18.0″
Middleboro 17.6″
Norwell 17.1″
Hanover 17.0″
North Plymouth 17.0″
Rockland 17.0″
Buzzards Bay 17"
Acushnet 16.5″

Carver 16.5″
South Weymouth 16.5″
Brockton 16.4″
Dartmouth 16.0″
Kingston 16.0″
New Bedford 16.0″
East Freetown 15.5″
Hanson 15.5″
Oak Bluffs 15.5″
Marion 15.0″
Rochester 15.0″

East Harwich 14.5″
Fairhaven 14.5″
Mashpee Neck 14.5″
Plymouth 14.0″
South Plymouth 14.0″
Bourne (Capeside) 13.8″
Sandwich 13.5″
North Weymouth 13.5″
Taunton 13.3″

West Plymouth 13.3″
Freetown 13.2″
Bridgewater 13.0″
Harwich 13.0″
Holbrook 13.0″
Marstons Mills 13.0″
Pembroke 13.0″
Scituate 13.0″
West Harwich 13.0″
Westport 13.0″

Mansfield 12.5″
South Yarmouth 11.5″
Teaticket 11.5″
Assonet 11.0″
Yarmouthport 10.5″
Canton 10.0″
Franklin 10.0″
Brewster 9.5″

Walpole 9.2″
Attleboro 9.0″
Hull 9.0″
Wellfleet 9.0″
Foxboro 8.6″
Braintree 8.5″
Falmouth 8.5″
Framingham 8.4″
Beverly 8.3″
Dighton 8.0″
Dover 8.0″

Marblehead 8.0″
Natick 8.0″
Pocasset 8.0″
Wrentham 8.0″
Milford 7.8″
Mashpee 7.5″
Roslindale 7.5″
Somerset 7.2″
Everett 7.0″

Marblehead 8.0″
Natick 8.0″
Pocasset 8.0″
Wrentham 8.0″
Milford 7.8″
Mashpee 7.5″
Roslindale 7.5″
Somerset 7.2″
Everett 7.0″
Lynn 7.0″
Mendon 7.0″
Needham Heights 7.0″
Norwood 7.0″
South Chatham 7.0″

Danvers 6.8″
Topsfield 6.5″
Northbridge 6.5″
Malden 6.2″
Wakefield 6.2″
Gloucester 6.0″
Ipswich 6.0″
Peabody 6.0″
Nantucket 6.0″
Stoneham 6.0″
Saugus 6.0″

Hamilton 5.8″
Webster 5.8″
Arlington 5.5″
Littleton 5.5″
Reading 5.5″
Sudbury 5.5″
Waltham 5.5″
Northboro 5.2″
Leominster 5.1″

Sturbridge 5.0″
Lexington 4.9″
Wayland 4.5″
Boylston 4.1″
Billerica 4.0″
Burlington 4.0″
East Brewster 4.0″
Haverhill 4.0″
Hopkinton 4.0″
North Chelmsford 4.0″

Dracut 3.8″
Carlisle 3.7″
Blandford 3.5″
Westford 3.5″
Melrose 3.3″
East Boxford 3.0″
East Longmeadow 3.0″
Hubbardston 3.0″

Quincy 3.0″
Ware 3.0″
Ludlow 2.8″
Southwick 2.8″
Wilbraham 2.5″
Chicopee 2.0″

We like to get a picture of the more snowed-in cars. Mine would have won, but the pic was blurry.

Makes sense, at least today...

Dawn at the Bourne Bridge...

I tried a few mid-blizzard shots, but this was the least blurry one.

"No Lifeguard On Duty"

Yup, I shoot when I'm drivin'... I do have the courtesy to stop the car in the middle of the road first.

We even mess around with some video, below...

Blizzard Warning For South Shore, Cape Cod And The Islands

We apologize for being all over your Facebook feed, but we did promise to be back with an update if things changed... and, by God, change hath come. Someone at the NWS dropped the B Word.

The National Weather Service has issued a Blizzard Warning for Cape Cod, East Coastal Plymouth County (roughly anyone with a shoreline from Quincy to Plymouth) and both Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket.

The South Coast, which will not get the ocean-effect/enhanced snow from the NE winds, only gets a Winter Storm Warning.

This storm isn't messing around. It also seems to gain 4 inches in the forecasts every time I take a pause from my Journalism to get high, stalk ex-girlfriends and/or peruse internet pornography. I could use a large Funky Fanabla from Marylou's right now, seeing as I'm at the tail end of a Werewolf Shift, but I'm afraid that we'll be due for 3 feet of snow by the time I get back... if I get back.

We're looking at 18-24" in a stretch running from Chatham west to Onset, then north (about 10-15 miles in from the coast) up to Duxbury Beach. You get 12-18" from Duxbury to Boston, and running south (and to the west of the coast) down to the Rhode Island border. The whole South Coast is in the 12-18" window, as is the entire interior of Plymouth County.

This is also falling on a good 5" or so left over from yesterday's entertainment with Storm #1 for much of SE Massachusetts.

This is a dangerous storm. Thank the gods that it isn't hitting during a weekday commute. Wish that this was happening when the Patriots host some sunny-weather team like Miami or Houston in the AFC playoffs. While we wouldn't anticipate you being snowbound for a week, it may not hurt to buy necessary things like beer and tobacco in bulk.

We aren't anticipating a driving ban, but you never know. Only fools and emergency personnel will be on the roads Saturday. You could get a thousand kinds of messed up if you had a car accident in this weather, and only about half of those will be injuries sustained in the accident.

Frozen in place like Jack Torrance? Could happen. Hit by a plow, left in the street, then hit by another plow? Signs say Possible. You think you're walking down Shore Road somewhere, but you instead are walking off a pier into the stormy Atlantic, where a late-staying Great White Shark devours you? OK, that's not too likely, but if it was going to happen, today would be a prime candidate.

You want to read this article quickly, because blizzards have a funny way of knocking out power to the area. It will take Eversource a long time to get you back on if that happens. Today is a day to settle whatever grudges you may have with the neighbor who has the fireplace and the huge wood pile.

We're pretty much done with forecasting, and our next articles will involve me heading out (on foot, I don't trust my beater car in this weather) to get pictures. We'll publish them as long as we are able to. Feel free to hit up our Facebook Page with any pictures that you wouldn't mind seeing up on these pages.

Hunker down and stay safe, folks. As Fred G. Sanford once said, "This is the big one, Elizabeth."

UPDATE: Heavy Snow To Hit SE Massachusetts Saturday

4 PM Update

Shawna Costa, on the cam...

Uhm, yeah, about that "not too bad" snowfall forecast for Saturday that we issued yesterday.

Ooops.

As it turns out, Saturday's storm may have a bit of the hot sauce on it, if you know what I mean. The National Weather Service has a Winter Storm Watch up for Saturday.

Snowfall totals, previously thought to be in the 2-4" range, are now in the 9-12" range. The 9-12" is actually a scaled down version of the 8-15" that the National Weather Service dropped in their morning forecast.

The fun should start around noon tomorrow, and it should snow through midnight, easily. There could be some ocean enhancement along the coast, and some ocean effect flurries could hang around on Sunday morn.

In all, the Canal area of Cape Cod could have a stretch where someone gets 20" of snow this weekend. Bourne, for instance, picked up 5" today, and are forecast to be in the epicenter of tomorrow's entertainment.

I haven't heard an actual weatherman (or Cindy or Shiri) say that coastal flooding is a concern. However, the winds should be whipping up from the NE at a 15-20 mph clip right around when the afternoon high tide hits. The Irish Riviera, the Cape and the Islands could get NE wind gusts up to 40 mph, so keep an eye on the sea, coasties!

We'll pop back in for an update tomorrow if the forecast then is as radically different from today's as today's was from yesterday.

BARNSTABLE:

...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...INCLUDE COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY...CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* TIMING...SNOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING AND LIKELY
BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN
TAPERING OFF LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLICK.
VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED. TRAVEL WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS AS
SNOW BECOMES HEAVY AT TIMES ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING WITH NEAR WHITE
OUT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. BE PREPARED TO MODIFY
TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD WINTER WEATHER DEVELOP.

Buttermilk Bay

SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH:

...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...INCLUDE EASTERN AND INTERIOR SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT...AND ALL OF RHODE
ISLAND.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* TIMING...SNOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING AND LIKELY
BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN
TAPERING OFF LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLICK.
VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED. TRAVEL WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS AS
SNOW BECOMES HEAVY AT TIMES ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING WITH NEAR WHITE
OUT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. BE PREPARED TO MODIFY
TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD WINTER WEATHER DEVELOP.

Much Needed Rain Coming Friday Morning

Massachusetts has been in quite a drought, and we have a rain deficit of several inches. That's not going to be a problem today, as soaking rains are set to enter the region.

From the National Weather Service:

BARNSTABLE (and PLYMOUTH) COUNTY:

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND...
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...BARNSTABLE MA...DUKES MA...EASTERN PLYMOUTH
MA...NANTUCKET MA...NORTHERN BRISTOL MA...SOUTHERN BRISTOL
MA...SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA AND WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA. IN RHODE
ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND RI...BRISTOL RI...EASTERN KENT RI...
NEWPORT RI...NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI...SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE
RI...WASHINGTON RI AND WESTERN KENT RI.

* THROUGH THIS EVENING

* RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST
MASSACHUSETTS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
FORECAST...WITH 2 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. LOCATIONS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS ARE MOST LIKELY TO RECEIVE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS.

* SIGNIFICANT URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE INCLUDING ROADS AND
UNDERPASSES THAT ARE PRONE TO FLOODING IN HEAVY RAIN. SOME
SMALL STREAMS MAY ALSO RISE OUT OF THEIR BANKS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO RAPID AND LIFE THREATENING FLOODING. BE PREPARED. IF YOU LIVE
OR WORK IN AN AREA PRONE TO FLOODING...KNOW A SAFE PLACE TO GO IF
FLOODING OCCURS OR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

DRIVERS SHOULD PLAN TO AVOID FLOODED ROADS AND HAVE AN ALTERNATE
ROUTE AVAILABLE.

STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED

The rain should start this morning, and clear off the Cape by the afternoon. We're looking at anywhere between a half inch and 4 inches of rain. Tropical rainstorms (not a tropical storm) are fickle girls, and you never know where the bounty will be until it falls.

This won't erase our rain deficit. In heavy rains, much of the rain is lost to runoff, once the ground becomes saturated.

Your lawns, flowers and vegetables are already doing their happy dance. The person paying $3000 a week to rent a Cape cottage? Maybe not so much.

Here's the radar shot from 6:45 AM Friday.