Three Chances At Snow In The Next Week

You may have been fooled by that Strawberry Spring we had this month, but Cranberry County Magazine wasn't fooled. It takes a good man to fool Cranberry County Magazine... it just doesn't take him very long.

As it turns out, we have not one not two but THREE shots at some Siberian Marching Powder in the next 7 days.

Friday looks like the best bet. 1-3" are forecast to fall on us. Friday morning looks to be the time for that one, although- as we always say in this business- a slight wobble in the track could mean rain, no precipitation at all, or even 3-6". Freezing cold air moves in behind this storm for the weekend, so get the shovel work done early, lest you be chopping at ice on Saturday.

Sunday Night/Monday Morning has a lower floor and a much higher ceiling. The floor, made more likely by the length of time between Now and Then, could be a non-event. The ceiling would be a powerful nor'easter with heavy snow. Yup, I just gave you a forecast of "nothing or two feet." If you want odds, go with the non-event, as it is the more likely scenario. Just remember that we also told you about the ceiling.

Monday Night/Tuesday Morning is a storm which (currently) is forecast to move along a more northerly track than the fellow we're watching for Sunday night, and is more of a bet to put some powder on us. Accuweather, which is very conservative, is giving Bourne, MA three inches of snow for this one.

Please remember that these events are not set in stone. They could be better or worse than I am telling you. You want to check the forecasts frequently during the upcoming week, as it is constantly evolving and has the chance to mess up your commute.

We'll be back with an update.

January 2017 Nor'easter Pictures, Videos

A powerful nor'easter hit Massachusetts this week. We missed last night's tide, but we got all up in this morning's offerings.

We mostly worked Duxbury Beach, but we did manage to snap-shot Green Harbor. The tide, normally a 9 foot nothing, got big ups from the storm surge.

I was using a thirty dollar Wal-Mart phone camera and a badly battered laptop, while shooting in the teeth of a nor'easter. The laptop served as the video host, and you will probably be able to tell that I usually have someone else do the filming.

This wasn't a bad storm, maybe a B minus. No structural damage that I could see, although some beach erosion surely went down by the dunes.

I grew up on this beach, and watched a lot of gulls in my time. The smarter ones hunker down somewhere leeward, but sometimes one of them gets bored enough or hungry enough and works the surf. Joe Deady II on the camera for this one.

My old front yard, just after the porch there. It was great fun and easy work repairing that law every spring. We used to have a cobblestone patio, too... cobblestones that my father either bought or "acquired" from some road in Boston. They were very fun to re-arrange every time the ocean did something like this, and I'm a masochist.

The main problem residents here will have is that the ocean splashed a few million gallons of salt water over the wall and onto a great many lawns. You can see it happening between the stairs.

My 35 mph photography is improving, but it is a slow process.

The legendary public stairs of Duxbury Beach, home to much 1980s teen debauchery.

I had to get off of Ocean Road North before it lived up to the name. That took me through this puddle of seawater. I was pretty much that U-Boat Commander joke from the Tom Cruise pimp movie.

Joe Deady made it outside before I did, but I made up for it later with intensity.

Libby Carr gets into the mix with a bit of second story work over some Hummock Lane flooding. Hummock Lane is named after "Rouse's Hummock," which is what Cable Hill was called either A) before they put the trans-Atlantic cable in, B) when Rouse lived there, C) both, or D) neither.

The guy who owns the house with the flooded lawn worked at a golf course when I lived there. No matter what sort of maelstrom befell Duxbury Beach that winter, you could drop a 30 foot putt on it by summer. My yard, by contrast, looked like what grows over a shallow grave after a while if the killer is particularly good at choosing spots that the cops don't look in.

This is what Duxbury's Great Salt Marsh looks like with a spring full moon tide. Unfortunately, this was a mid-cycle 9 foot tide. Any water you can see in this picture is storm surge. I'm at the beach, shooting towards Duxbury Proper.

This is when I decided that moving my car from the driveway of the house I was shooting at would be a good idea.

As bad as this may look, A) it didn't get any, uhm, badder, and B) this is getting off very, very easily. as a full moon tide when this storm hit would have probably wrecked some homes.

You never ever let Ol' Glory get slapped around by a nor'easter. A wind sock would have made my job easier, but that's not this guy's problem.

They say that a waves don't get  more than 5 feet off this beach in all but extreme conditions, and we were in that neighborhood today. They had a rough tide the night before, and were very lucky that those waves weren't rolling into houses on a full moon tide.

You can tell that I shot this one instead of Joe... because it's blurry as heck. The surf covers up for a lot of my errors.

"I'z unda yoor howz.... shootin' at yer ocean."

I got up on the seawall for a few, but it was camera suicide until the tide eased back some.

Even the porch was a rough go.

I got in where I fit in.

Hummock Lane, with Cable Hill/Rouse's Hummock in the background. A newly located Cape Cod Bay, now a street pool, is in the foreground.

RAIN TOTALS AT NOON

North Weymouth, 3.5"
Sandwich 3.24"
East Mashpee 2.75"
Falmouth 2.52"
Duxbury 2.0"

...'been raining since, too.

Rain is actually what washes the salt water out of the lawns, if you're lucky. It's all sand once you go down far enough, and sand drains well.

You can almost see Green Harbor in the background. Green Hahbahhhh... obscured by the mists of the storm.

WIND GUSTS

Wellfleet 59 mph
Minot 40 mph
Cuttyhunk 44 mph
Plum Island 62 mph

Duxbury Beach, summer 1978, after the Blizzard. The house I was doing most of my shooting from is a much larger version of the 4th house from the right. I grew up in #2 from the right.

We made our way south for the tail end of the storm, and got some Sagamore work in.

We got to Saggy well after high tide, so don't think that we don't represent hard down this way.

Sagamore benefits greatly from the presence of Cape Cod, which keeps it from the heaviest of the storm surf.

You could still get knocked off a rock two hours after high tide. Bourne representin'...

We went to the White Cliffs in Cedarville (Plymouth), but the party was pretty much over by then.

Nor'easter Comin'

Hey there! We wanted to give you the early heads-up, as a powerful Nor'easter is targeting us for Monday and Tuesday.

AS FOR NOW, it looks like a rain event in SE Massachusetts. However, long-range forecasts have a way of changing. Our last blizzard started off as a forecast of "six inches of snow over two days" before evolving into the snow machine which eventually visited us.

This storm looks notable for three reasons:

RAIN.... We're looking at 1-3 inches of rain. .10" of rain is a good soaking, while 3" gets up near Tropical Storm territory. No one has said snow for our area, and I want to stress that before stating that- depending on how fluffy it is- 3" of rain would equate to a couple of feet of snow.

COASTAL FLOODING... Winds along the coast will approach 50 mph, more than enough to push an angry sea towards your beach house. One thing that you have going for you? Low astronomical tides. Duxbury Beach, where we hope to embed ourselves for the storm, has a piddling 9 foot tide lined up for Tuesday morning, as opposed to the 11.4 flood tide that they got during the new moon on the 12th. Tuesday morning looks to be the height of the storm, for now anyways.

LENGTH... This looks like one of those 3 tide storms, which is why relatively weak nor'easters often inflict damage similar to a more powerful tropical systems. The ocean always wins, and it generally wins by attrition. "Attrition" is one of those flighty terms, which can mean anything that a journalist needs it to, but the basic idea is that a series of strong tides will wear down a beach through erosion. I'm not 100% sure exactly how long this storm will drop NE winds on the coast, so some of those storm tides may have winds that don't help the waves directly towards the beach.

This is more of a Heads Up than a detailed forecast. We'll be back with an update as the storm gets closer.

UPDATE: Heavy Snow To Hit SE Massachusetts Saturday

4 PM Update

Shawna Costa, on the cam...

Uhm, yeah, about that "not too bad" snowfall forecast for Saturday that we issued yesterday.

Ooops.

As it turns out, Saturday's storm may have a bit of the hot sauce on it, if you know what I mean. The National Weather Service has a Winter Storm Watch up for Saturday.

Snowfall totals, previously thought to be in the 2-4" range, are now in the 9-12" range. The 9-12" is actually a scaled down version of the 8-15" that the National Weather Service dropped in their morning forecast.

The fun should start around noon tomorrow, and it should snow through midnight, easily. There could be some ocean enhancement along the coast, and some ocean effect flurries could hang around on Sunday morn.

In all, the Canal area of Cape Cod could have a stretch where someone gets 20" of snow this weekend. Bourne, for instance, picked up 5" today, and are forecast to be in the epicenter of tomorrow's entertainment.

I haven't heard an actual weatherman (or Cindy or Shiri) say that coastal flooding is a concern. However, the winds should be whipping up from the NE at a 15-20 mph clip right around when the afternoon high tide hits. The Irish Riviera, the Cape and the Islands could get NE wind gusts up to 40 mph, so keep an eye on the sea, coasties!

We'll pop back in for an update tomorrow if the forecast then is as radically different from today's as today's was from yesterday.

BARNSTABLE:

...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...INCLUDE COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY...CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* TIMING...SNOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING AND LIKELY
BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN
TAPERING OFF LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLICK.
VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED. TRAVEL WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS AS
SNOW BECOMES HEAVY AT TIMES ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING WITH NEAR WHITE
OUT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. BE PREPARED TO MODIFY
TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD WINTER WEATHER DEVELOP.

Buttermilk Bay

SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH:

...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...INCLUDE EASTERN AND INTERIOR SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT...AND ALL OF RHODE
ISLAND.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* TIMING...SNOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING AND LIKELY
BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN
TAPERING OFF LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLICK.
VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED. TRAVEL WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS AS
SNOW BECOMES HEAVY AT TIMES ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING WITH NEAR WHITE
OUT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. BE PREPARED TO MODIFY
TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD WINTER WEATHER DEVELOP.

Nor'easter Not A Problem For The Coast

A rather powerful storm is taking aim at Massachusetts. It is packing high winds and heavy precipitation.

Southeastern Massachusetts gets the shaft on this one, if your definition of "the shaft" includes "we don't get any snow." Snow will be the problem of those strange inland people who don't live close to a beach. We might get a flurry or something, but it is a rain event in any town where you have Beach Stickers for sale.

Speaking of beaches, yours shouldn't get it too badly from this storm. Coastal Flooding is not expected to be a major concern. While we will have some heavy SE winds for a spell, they will occur during low tide. By the time the tide is coming in, the wind should have shifted to the west.

There is a chance that the winds are still SE when tonight's high tide comes, but SE winds are a very different animal than NE winds are, especially on the shores of Cape Cod Bay. Your worst case scenario is some minor splashover.

You might get some surge on west-facing beaches, but I wouldn't worry too much about it.

The winds will be ridiculous, topping 60 mph in some gusts. 75 mph is a hurricane, if you need something to attach those forecast wind gusts to in your imagination.

You should have a wet and sloppy commute home tonight, as heavy rains and high winds will be on the prowl. The precipitation should be over by midnight, but the winds will howl in from the west for most of Friday.

Duxbury Beach, November King Tide

Stephen and Jessica got stuck at work yesterday, but have no fear... Duggan was here! By sheer fate, he happened to be just where I was supposed to be for the high tide. Or, since I was working for a church, maybe it wasn't fate....

Yesterday was a Supermoon King Tide, as you can see on this here chart. That's Boston, but same diff, player. The moon was as close to the Earth as it has been since the 1940s, and that made for huge tides.

Why I hire photographers.... here's me shooting the Supermoon.

Fortunately for coastal residents, the wind hadn't kicked in by the time (11 AM) that the tide was high. This meant "no surf," and took the specter of serious coastal flood damage off of the table. When the wind did perk up, it was between tides.

It never hurts to check the Bluefish River during King Tides. It's a shame that the kids were in school (and that it's November), because this was a prime Jumping Off The Bluefish River Bridge tide. I bet that somebody blew off school in 1943 to jump off that bridge during the last King Tide. A kid wouldn't waste a sick day on a bridge jump these days, what with the Internet and Drugs and Girls and Netflix and all.

I'm not joking when I say that I'd trade my Bourne cottage for this boathouse like thisquick.

If they never invented golf courses and peope just golfed through town (which is how I taught a generation of my students to play bocce in Charlestown, much to the amusement of the old guys who hung around the Navy Yard on sunny days), this would make a tremendous 18th hole..... OK, it would make a tremendous 18th hole if a tavern was within walking distance.

No weathered wood was spared in this shot. That's a mighty long dock, most likely a relic of Duxburys shipbuilding era. There is about 10% of me that imagines that it was built by a fisherman to be just 10-20 feet out of his wife's shouting-out-the-window range. 

It's unusual for the tide to get this close to the road in Duxbury. That's why they put the road there.

Thanks to Debbie D, we get this 3 shot panorama of Bradford Lake in Duxbury. Oh wait, that's not Bradford Lake, it's Bradford's Parking Lot. It;s normally a meadow, until the tide water in the marsh rises above the level of the road between it and Bradford's. If you're considering the purchase of that large house on the left, know that this is what the meadow fills up like without a storm