Powerful Nor'easter Hits Today, Coastal Concerns

A powerful nor'easter is sizing up New England, bringing the potential for heavy rain, high winds, power outages and very dangerous seas.

We'll let the National Weather Service tell you:

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Monday Morning Briefing:

The coastal storm that we've been talking about for the past few days is set to arrive today. There is a lot to talk about, so here's a rundown of the potential hazards. Check out the images below for more information.

If you have any questions, feel free to post them here. We'll do our best to answer them as soon as we can.

Winter Weather: Today into Tuesday

- Mix of snow, sleet, and some freezing rain expected across much of western and central MA and northern CT.

- Higher accumulations (2-4") expected across higher terrain near Berkshires and northern Worcester County. There could be as much as 1" of sleet in some areas.

- Less icing is expected than was previously forecast (now under 1/4 inch).

Wind: Strongest Later This Afternoon and Tonight

- East winds gust as high as 60-70 mph along the immediate eastern Massachusetts coast including Cape Ann, coastal Plymouth County, Cape Cod, Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Block Island.

- Gusts of 40-50 mph expected elsewhere, except 30-40 mph in Franklin and Hampshire Counties.

- Strongest winds expected from late this afternoon into tonight, before winds subside quickly Tuesday morning.

Heavy Rain: This Evening into Tuesday Morning

- 1 to 3 inches of rain is expected, with the higher amounts in RI and eastern MA where locally higher amounts possible.

- Potential for significant urban flooding in RI and eastern MA, possibly flooding of small streams as well.

Coastal Flooding: This Evening and Tuesday Morning

- Pockets of minor coastal flooding expected along the eastern MA coast during this evening's high tide. A storm surge of around 2 ft is expected.

- More widespread minor coastal flooding is expected in the same areas with Tuesday morning's high tide, when there could also be pockets of moderate flooding. A storm surge of 3 to perhaps even 4 ft is expected.

- Most favored areas for moderate flooding include Newburyport, Scituate, and possibly Gloucester and Nantucket Harbor.

- Minor coastal flooding is also possible Tuesday morning along parts of the South Coast including Newport, Westerly, and Block Island. Coastal Flood Advisories may be issued for these locations later today.
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Snow isn't expected anywhere in our reading area. This is good, because 3 inches of precipitation can crank out 2+ feet of snow very easily. Throw in several hours of tropical storm force winds, and we'd be using that B Word which rhymes with lizard.

Instead, we'll get soaking rains, howling winds and pounding surf. The storm should produce 2 fierce tides before the winds shift. Prior to what we previously thought, winds are now forecast to be from the NE at high tide on Tuesday morning, which is bad news for anyone owning a beach house.

Tides are astronomically low, but that will be cancelled out by the 2-4 foot surge. The end result is equal to the worst full moon high tide of any month. After that, it's just a question of how big the waves are when they hit the shore. You can use the math from the chart up at the top to see how the tides will be altered by the surge.

The winds may also take down some power lines, especially when you get closer to the coast. You can check the wind forecast for your area in the picture at the bottom of this article.

Some more NWS stuff. We're doing watches and warnings pertaining to Duxbury, just because...

High Wind Warning

Areal Flood Watch

Coastal Flood Advisory (Monday)

Coastal Flood Watch (Tuesday)

As for us, we plan to take to the road for this storm. The surf will be better on the Cape at the height of the storm, but it might be more practical for us to work the Irish Riviera, maybe Scituate to Plymouth to Sandwich. I may not see my own house for two days.

We'll post our pictures as we get them. Anyone who wishes to contribute can reach us through our Facebook page. We love reader submissions. You're probably a better photographer than ol' Steve here, so you'd have a good chance of taking the best picture used in the article.

We'll be back with an update.

Heavy Snow Possible, Coastal Flooding Also In The Mix

Southeastern Massachusetts is right on the edge of what will be a history-worthy blizzard just a bit down the coast. Snowfall is possible, while coastal flooding is more of a certainty.

The Blizzard of 2016 is coming. It's going to hit the mid-Atlantic harder than it is going to hit us. This is a bit unusual, as there will soon be cities in North Carolina that have had a greater one-storm snowfall total than cities in Massachusetts can boast of. Areas in the mid-Atlantic could pick up 3 feet of snow.

They already have a Blizzard Warning there (it's snowing in Charlotte, NC right now), and we have a Winter Storm Warning in SE Massachusetts.

We're not getting that much snow up here in southeast Massachusetts. We are currently forecast to get 3-6" on the South Coast, Cape Cod, and southern Plymouth County. That "three to six inches" thing is a bit touchy, as a slight wobble in the storm path could screw mightily with those projected snowfall totals.

I have no problem at all morally saying something to my readers along the lines of "We could get anywhere between rain, flurries, five inches of snow or two feet of it." Have a wide array of responses at your disposal for Saturday and Sunday.

It should be interesting to see Carolina dealing with  bona-fide blizzard. Washington DC was ground to a halt Wednesday by an inch of snow. They have no means of dealing with the snow they're getting. There should be a lot of wrecked pickup trucks once the F-360s start, a C&W sort of Ice Capades.

New England, should we end up getting socked as well, may have some power outage issues. The mid-Atlantic is going to be commanding the lion's share of the restoring-power resources. This delays their response in Massachusetts. It has happened before, my friends, and it will happen again.

However, our share of the storm could be nothing at all. This is one of those situations with high variety between Best Case and Worst Case scenarios. Accuweather has changed my forecast from 3-6" to 6'-10" and back in just the last 24 hours.

We could even hear that B Word used in our forecasts. Blizzards only need 3 hours of certain conditions to qualify, and we are currently forecast to have all of those conditions at some point between Saturday and Sunday.

Our big concern with this storm will be coastal flooding. This storm will have a small blizzard area, but it will have a much larger area of high winds. Those winds will almost certainly hit Massachusetts, and we could have a long stretch of 35-50 MPH winds.

Those winds will stir up the ocean mightily. We will have problem tides Saturday night and especially Sunday morning. Sunday's tides might be mollified somewhat by the wind shifting to the N/NW direction.

The flooding will be influenced by the full-moon high tides, which are astronomically inopportune this weekend.

Here's a nice link to check tides.

The wind shift makes even coastal flooding a tough call, but it is a bit easier of a sell than predicting the snowfall totals.

The fun should start Saturday AM, and should grind to a halt at some point Sunday.

It goes without saying that you should know which taverns have a generator if the power should go out during the Patriots game.

Here are some more maps:

The map is from Monday, but still interesting

Good Luck!