The Super Bowl is today, and it hits with the force of a national holiday. 111 million watched the game last year, making it the third most-viewed Super Bowl of all time... which also makes it the third most-viewed TV show ever put on the tube.
The highest non-Super Bowl TV show ever was 105 million watching the final episode of M.A.S.H., and M.A.S.H. was only able to hold the title until Super Bowl 44. Of the 20 most viewed programs in US History, 19 are Super Bowls and one is the M.A.S.H. finale. You need 88 million viewers to even sniff that list. Trump and Hillary's first debate scored 84 million. Seinfeld's last episode scored 76 million. The last Johnny Carson version of The Tonight Show did 50 million.
If you need an idea about how twisted TV ratings get... the fact that population grows yearly doesn't dilute the shock of realizing that the last episode of The Mary Tyler Moore Show was beaten by the last episode of ALF. Ranked #20 overall on the list of TV show codas, ALF also outscored the final episodes of Breaking Bad (ALF doubled them), Bonanza, Murphy Brown, Letterman, Sex In The City, Will And Grace, Twin Peaks and Melrose Place.
YouTube is changing everything. Like I said, Donald Trump's inauguration drew 30 million TV viewers. I'm In Love With The Coco, on YouTube, drew 190 million.
If you need a lead on how powerful the Super Bowl is... the Super Bowl postgame show did 76 million viewers. That's what the final Seinfeld garnered, as well as the Ed Sullivan show with the Beatles. It's is about twice as many viewers as the Academy Awards got, a bit less than twice of what Obama's inauguration drew, more than twice as many viewers as Trump's inauguration had, and about triple of what the Charles/Diana wedding drew in the US.
The only thing that can beat a Super Bowl is a British royal wedding, and you have to go Worldwide viewership to get that 750 million number. Only 30-40 million foreigners watch the Super Bowl, which may just explain why the US wins all of those World Wars.
Not a lot of people bet on the Royal Wedding, but that's not a problem for the fan of American F***ing Football. You can bet on every single aspect of the game, and we shall explore some of those aspects in today's column.
The basic betting lines, and the ones where most of the money will be wagered, is like thusly:
2/5 6:30 ET New England -3 Atlanta 58.5
This means that New England is favored to win, by 3 points, a game that is going to get 58 or 59 points.
We did a whole article about how we thought that this betting line was going to work itself out, although we spent most of the article talking about Mongols, General Sherman and physically destroying the city of Atlanta.
However, there are hundreds of bets you can make on the game. Here's a few of them, with little asides where we give you advice on how we'd handle it:
Odds to win Super Bowl MVP
Tom Brady: 3/2
Matt Ryan: 7/4
Julio Jones: 11/2
Field: 10/1
Anything could happen here. Legarrette Blount might punch in 4 touchdowns. Vic Beasley might sever Tom Brady's spine. Mohammed Sanu might catch a TD and throw for one. The field goal kickers may do all the scoring. Devin McCourty may get a pair of pick-sixes. If you feel that something like that will happen, choose "Field."
If you think that Hotlanta will win, and that they will win because Matt Ryan throws 4TDs to Julio Jones (his momma named him that), you have to make up your mind.
On the other hand, if the Pats win, you're pretty much handing the trophy to Champagne Tom.
O/U total points at halftime: 29.5... O/U total points after three quarters: 43.5
The Patriots start slow in Super Bowls. The Falcons scored on their first possession like 8 times in a row or so.
Keep in mind, if one team goes up big, they'll run the ball in an attempt to eat the clock. That is mostly a 4th quarter matter, but it all factors in if you're banking on the 59 point Over for the game. You could also have a close game where the teams trade repeated strikes in the 4th quarter.
I tend to view games as Wholes, and usually avoid this kind of bet.
Odds a kicker misses an extra point: 7/3
It's been happening a lot this year. That said, we have two pretty clutch kickers working this game, which is being played in a domed stadium. That's kicker Nirvana,
Odds there is a completed Hail Mary: 66/1
When you may have a mortgage payment riding on whether someone throws a Hail Mary and hits it, try to bet on the team who has Danny AMENdola.
If you have to use ALL CAPS to force through the Amen part of the joke, the joke probably wasn't funny... but the What's Funny book was written during the Bob Hope era, well before the Internet.
Odds to rush for the most yards
LeGarrette Blount: 9/4
Devonta Freeman: 5/2
Tevin Coleman: 3/1
Dion Lewis: 6/1
FIELD: 28/1
Old School wagerers think "Kenny King," a relatively obscure back who cranked out an 80 yard TD catch to screw up a 1980 receiving version of this bet.
You want to go Blount here. Freeman, Lewis and Coleman are more likely to catch the ball than be handed it in most scenarios.
Odds to score the first TD
Julio Jones: 9/2
Devonta Freeman: 5/1
LeGarrette Blount: 6/1
Mohamed Sanu: 7/1
Martellus Bennett: 9/1
Chris Hogan: 11/1
Julian Edelman: 11/1
Tevin Coleman: 14/1
Dion Lewis: 16/1
FIELD: 12/1
I'd be taking Blount all day with this, except that 1) Atlanta scores on their first possession a lot, and B) Julio Jones is a freak of nature, and 3) FIELD is a group that includes the other 98 players involved in the game.
Over/Under height of the tallest player to score a TD: 6’3″
Jones is listed at 6'3". Blount is under. Brady is over. Bennett is over. Lewis, Freeman and Coleman are under. Ryan is 6'4". Both Atlanta tight ends and Bennett are over 6'4". Every defensive back is under 6'3", in case you're counting on a pick-6.
Over/Under weight of the heaviest player to score a TD: 249.5 lbs
Blount is over 250 pounds. If you're banking on keeping him out of the end zone, you may as well spend all of your money betting Atlanta and the Under.
Odds the opening coin toss comes up…
Heads: 1/1
Tails: 1/1
I could say "flip a coin" here, but that would be redundant.
Odds on what color Gatorade will be poured on the winning coach:
Orange: 7/2
Blue: 15/4
Clear/Water: 4/1
Purple: 6/1
Yellow: 13/2
None: 10/1
"Yellow" is the popular bet in this Mr. Trump-goes-to-Moscow era.
I do know that I worked in a factory for many years, the company kept Gatorade up all the time for us, and we always wanted the Green. Green isn't on this list, which is funny because we'd always bitch and moan if we got Red, which also isn't on the list.
Odds on what color hoodie Bill Belichick wears
Blue: 4/11
Grey: 3/1
Red: 40/1
Field: 50/1
I will say that, if he shows up in a suit, it will be his last game. If he's ever going to dress up for a game, it will be that one.
Otherwise, I'm only comfortable when he wears the grey one.
Odds a fan throws a _____ on the field:
flare 15/1
slightly deflated football: 19/1
dildo: 45/1
dead falcon: 300/1
The flare may come from Bobcat Goldthwait's "He threw a lit flare into my car" bit from When Your Team Wins The Super Bowl. The football joke would only make Champagne Tom angry. The dil gets chucked on the field now and then, and is probably the safest bet on the list. I do not know whether it counts if the team has a pet Falcon who dies of fright when the New England Football Mil-ish-ee- uh gets to bangin' away with those muskets.
I can think of very few winged creatures who got involved with high profile sports games and didn't regret it immediately. The Randy Johnson/dove story is worse than the Dave Winfield/seagull story, and trails only Michael Vick hanging dogs and Kerry Von Erich giving a cat the Iron Claw. I'd bet against the dead falcon.
O/U on the number of times Gisele is shown on screen: 1.5
Giselle is never going to hurt any broadcast with a visual medium. Take the over.
O/U references to Deflategate/Spygate: 4.5
Again, the big theme of the game is Brady being judged innocent by God in a Trial of Ordeal relating to the Deflategate fiasco. Take the over. Remember, someone in the mob thinks that it's a fairly good bet that people will be throwing deflated footballs onto the field.
Odds Dan Quinn wears a hair piece during the game: 50/1
I read an article about Clive Rush, who coached the Pats during a bad season. He was later institutionalized.
One day, he was going up against Paul Brown, one of the all-time great coaches. He's who the Cleveland Browns are named after, and you'd have to check with Jim Brown's momma to make sure that Jim Brown isn't named after him as well.
"Paul Brown is a genius," Rush told his players. "Anything logical that I might try today, he has already anticipated it and developed a counter for it. Therefore, we shall do illogical things."
His big move was having guys run into the huddle, stay for 3 seconds, then run off the field at the last second. "He'll notice it, no doubt," said Rush. "I'm counting on that. He'll wonder why I'm doing it, and waste time he should waste thinking about me trying to solve that riddle instead.""
The Brown team (I think it was Cincy at that point) won by 35 points, as I recall.
That sort of logic, designed to confuse Bill Belichick, is the only way I see Quinn wearing a rug. Bald is beautiful, IMHO. Let it shine.
O/U on the length of the broadcast: 215.5 minutes
Any number of things can drive this total up or down. I'd avoid this one like a leper whore, but I put the numbers up there for you to bet on.
O/U on the number of times FOX show stars are shown in the crowd during the broadcast: 1.5
If this were the 1997 Super Bowl, you could watch Ally McBeal binge-n-purge on some hot dogs.
I don't watch much normal TV, so- sadly- that is the most recent reference I can think up on this topic.
Over/Under number of sideline reports from Erin Andrews during the game broadcast (between the opening kickoff and the final play): 5.5
The only way you can see more of her is if you aim a camera into her hotel room, wokka wokka wokka...
Odds there is a halftime show wardrobe malfunction: 2/1
When Janet Jackson was disrobed by the NSYNCH kid during the halftime show, I was actually reaching down to dip a Tostito into some salsa. This was at a point in my life that I wasn't seeing many breasts. Sometimes, the world is a cruel and unjust place.
If we get a Lady Gaga warbrobe malfunction, does it count if she does it on purpose? I keep seeing her doing a "Grab THIS pussy, Donald!" type of protest. It's not always a bad thing to be on the Ugly list in some places, especially if 110 million people see you work your way onto it.
O/U on the number of guest performers during the halftime show: 0.5
Someone, be it Mick Jagger or Rihanna or Bey Bey or even Jimmy Page, is joining her for a song. You only need one with this bet.
I am curious if, should she bring out a midget, what a half a person counts as.
Odds on Lady Gaga’s opening halftime show song
The Edge Of Glory: 3/1
Perfect Illusion: 7/2
Born This Way: 4/1
Other: 2/1
The only Gaga song I know is the one that goes "La la la-la la," which I also am being told by Stacey's kids is every one of her songs.
Little Known Cranberry County Magazine fact... this column was originally a town reporter column on Cape Cod TODAY, we covered the town of Bourne, and we called it Bourne This Way. I had no idea it was a Gaga song for several of the years we were writing that column (I wanted the more Kubrickian "Bourne To Kill"), until Jessica finally explained it to me. The IP address on our Facebook page still says "Bourne This Way."
Odds Lady Gaga gets booed during the halftime show: 9/1
A very, very liberal performer who might 1) have a lip synch failure a la Ashley Simpson or Mariah Carey, or who might 2) make some sort of anti-Trump statement in a stadium full of can-afford-$2500-a-ticket Texas football fans... it's a lot like what they say about passing the football- three things can happen, and two of them are bad.
Odds on which company will air the first commercial (after the coin toss):
Bud Light: 25/1
Lexus: 30/1
Intel: 30/1
Skittles: 30/1
Wix: 30/1
TurboTax: 33/1
Avocados from Mexico: 35/1
Mr. Clean: 35/1
Hyundai: 500/1
I don't know what a Wix is, so I'd probably bet on the Bud Light.
Running an ad during the Super Bowl will cost you $5 million for 30 seconds.
"See it on the TV/any given Sunday/Win the Super Bowl, drive home in a Hyundai..."
O/U commercials parodying Donald Trump: 1.5
Does a White House press conference count? Those oily bastards might repeal Obamacare during the middle of the second quarter.
Odds on who is more likely to host Saturday Night Live following the Super Bowl:
Tom Brady: 1/19
Julio Jones: 25/1
Matt Ryan: 50/1
Bill Belichick: 5,000/1
The odds on Belichick (who would be superb at it, the perfect straight man for a Sandler/Farley/Belushi type of character) may be conservative.
"None of them" is the best option.
Odds Luke Bryan wears cowboy boots and blue jeans: 4/1
Your author, who won $50 once when Christina Aguilera wore pantyhose during a different National Anthem, should know the answer to this, but I don't know who Luke is and don't know how he dresses.
I assume that he's a country guy, and they don't wear anything but jeans and cowboy hats. What else is he going to wear? A full pimp outift? Camo? Hezbollah?
Odds of Lady Gaga making an anti-Trump political statement during her performance (visual or vocal): 10/13
This is a juicy one. Gaga is a fluff performer, known as much for her legs as her lungs. She did a perfectly nice National Anthem in the last Super Bowl without editing anything into the Francis Scott Key classic.
She could instantly change her image into something far more serious by taking a shot at Cheeto Jesus.
When betting money on this, please make sure that the line is clearly defined on"making an anti-Trump political statement" and "getting that anti-Trump political statement past the censors," especially if her protest involves soft furry things that Trump likes to grab.
It may add to your enjoyment of the National Anthem to know that it is a rewritten English drinking song, akin to Roll Out The Barrel. The guy who wrote it, Francis Scott Key, later had a son who was killed by a jealous husband. The killer, Union General Daniel Sickles, got acquitted by running the first Insanity defense in US legal history.
Sickles later had a leg blown off at Gettysburg, and is said to have refused pain-killing ether because lighting a cigar around ether may cause an explosion... and, uhm, first things first, mate.
- Abdullah
