Wednesday, January 28, 2015

Local Stations Blow The Forecast, Blizzard Snowfall Totals

Duxbury Bay, MA
Holy Mackerel! What a storm!

We had ridiculous snow, possibly record setting in some places. We had coastal flooding that was tearing down seawalls in Green Harbor and coastlines in Nauset. We have widespread, multiple-day school closings, and we even had a statewide driving ban.

Not too shabby, especially for a storm which the local news stations never mentioned until 48 hours before it started. I had an article up a full news cycle before the local TV forecasters (who were too busy hyping the piddling Saturday snow) did, a truly disgraceful black mark on their reputations.

When I published, only NECN had anything up about a potential blizzard, and their headline ended in a question mark. Accuweather, who I don't work for, had the blizzard forecast and some conservative snowfall totals up several hours before local stations even mentioned that it may snow.

Several generations of Boston forecasters have enhanced the town's reputation for spotty forecasting. The Blizzard of '78, the Halloween Gale/Perfect Storm, Hurricane Earl and now this storm... all blown forecasts to some extent, and forecasts that left Massachusetts residents unaware and unprepaed.

Of course, the Boston forecasters are scientists, and have forgotten more about weather than I shall I ever learn. I'm a sportswriter, by trade. But I also was the one who got the forecast correct...

Bourne, MA

This was a major blizzard, and I'd imagine that some local town records were challenged. It basically snowed from about noon Monday through Wednesday morning, heavy and hard like a fat porn star.

Cranberry County's coastline also furthered our reputation for impact snow events. We get rain when the rest of the state gets snow a lot... but when we get snow, baby, we don't f*ck with the small totals.

I'm always more impressed when Plymouth gets 15" at sea level than when some higher elevation gets 20". Plymouth pretty much doubled that 15" figure, and flooding was catastrophic all up and down the South Shore. Worcester doesn't get coastal flooding.

Marsh Vegas seems to have won the Worst Storm Damage award, as they lost some seawall and several houses. Scituate gets most of the attention, but Marshfield and especially Duxbury usually get the worst damage.

Duxbury people, when walking around Scituate, always remark that they (Scituate gets ridiculous flooding, don't get me wrong... the Duxbuy/Scituate coastal flood rivalry involves a lot of one-upping comparisons, akin to two guys in Hell arguing about who has the better heater) couldn't flood that badly. When asked why, the answer is always "The beach houses in Scituate are all 1940s-looking... the 1940s beach houses have all been destroyed in Duxbury."

Thusly, Duxbuy Beach is the epicenter of "Watch some yuppie over-renovate a cottage, then move away the next year after they see a nor'easter up close for the first time" activity. Veterans of that stretch of coastline can usually spot these types as they are moving in.

Duxbury Beach, MA


Let's peep some snowfall totals, shall we?

Remember, these are NWS trained spotters, which means that they were told to find an undisturbed meadow and average out 10 yardstick measurements. If they say that your town only got 11" but you couldn't find your car in your own driveway, remember that snowfall totals can vary wildly as you cross a town. Duxbuy, to use a local example, is about as large physically as Boston.

For instance, most of you remember the Blizzard of '78 as a snow event. "I could step out of my 10th story apartment window into a snowbank," and so forth. On Duxbury Beach, I never saw a flake. I remember that storm as a coastal flood, of the highest order.

Also remember that Boston measures at the airport, which is right on the coast. That gives them some odd totals. Marshfield, Hanson and one of the Plymouth measurements are also airport-based.

Oh yeah, snowfall totals....

Duxbury Beach, MA


...BARNSTABLE COUNTY...
   WEST HARWICH          30.5   915 AM  1/28  SPOTTER
   HYANNIS               27.0   748 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   EAST FALMOUTH         24.8  1000 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   WEST YARMOUTH         24.0   250 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   HARWICH               23.0   749 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   NORTH FALMOUTH        22.5  1055 AM  1/28  HAM RADIO
   SOUTH HYANNIS         22.0  1054 AM  1/28  HAM RADIO
   CENTERVILLE           21.0   700 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   SOUTH DENNIS          18.2   728 PM  1/27  EMERGENCY MANAGER
   ORLEANS               17.6   547 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   WELLFLEET             17.5   136 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   CHATHAM               17.1   800 AM  1/28  CO-OP
   BREWSTER              14.0   308 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO

...BRISTOL COUNTY...
   EAST FREETOWN         26.0   458 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   FALL RIVER            24.1  1111 AM  1/28  HAM RADIO
   SOMERSET              24.0  1235 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   ACUSHNET              22.2   605 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   NEW BEDFORD           21.0   808 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   TAUNTON               20.8   416 AM  1/28  NWS OFFICE
   MANSFIELD             19.8   548 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   NORTH DIGHTON         19.5   839 AM  1/28  HAM RADIO
   FAIRHAVEN             19.0   629 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   NORTH ATTLEBORO       18.9   306 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   WEST ACUSHNET         17.5   808 AM  1/28  HAM RADIO
   NORTH ACUSHNET        16.0   806 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO

...DUKES COUNTY...
   OAK BLUFFS            27.0   237 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   EDGARTOWN             20.0   800 AM  1/28  CO-OP
   WEST TISBURY          19.0  1053 AM  1/28  HAM RADIO

...NANTUCKET COUNTY...
   NANTUCKET             12.0   411 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO

Bourne, MA
...NORFOLK COUNTY...
   SHARON                31.0   923 AM  1/28  GENERAL PUBLIC
   MILTON                30.8   927 AM  1/28  COOP OBSERVER
   3 SSW MILTON          30.8   800 AM  1/28  BLUE HILL
   BRAINTREE             26.0   407 PM  1/27  GENERAL PUBLIC
   BLUE HILLS            25.5   100 PM  1/27  CO-OP OBSERVER
   WALPOLE               24.6   619 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   NORTH WEYMOUTH        24.5  1119 AM  1/28  HAM RADIO
   QUINCY                24.5   840 PM  1/27  GENERAL PUBLIC
   SOUTH WEYMOUTH        24.0   907 PM  1/27  MEDIA
   NEEDHAM HEIGHTS       23.0   956 AM  1/28  TRAINED SPOTTER
   WEYMOUTH              23.0   404 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   RANDOLPH              23.0  1003 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   NORWOOD               22.3   700 AM  1/28  NWS EMPLOYEE
   FOXBORO               22.0   624 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   WRENTHAM              22.0  1249 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   FRANKLIN              21.0   800 AM  1/28  CO-OP
   NORFOLK               20.0  1251 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   MEDFIELD              19.0   430 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   COHASSET              18.3   235 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   WEST WALPOLE          18.0  1107 AM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   STOUGHTON             17.0   429 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   MILLIS                16.5   620 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO

...PLYMOUTH COUNTY...
   PLYMOUTH              30.7  1139 PM  1/27  GENERAL PUBLIC
   NORWELL               28.0  1116 AM  1/28  HAM RADIO
   KINGSTON              28.0   526 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   MARSHFIELD            25.0   841 AM  1/28  TRAINED SPOTTER
   HANOVER               24.0   736 PM  1/27  GENERAL PUBLIC
   HULL                  23.5   817 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   PEMBROKE              23.0   432 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   ROCKLAND              22.0   913 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   BROCKTON              22.0  1135 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   WEST WAREHAM          21.5   230 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   CARVER                21.3   900 PM  1/27  NWS EMPLOYEE
   HANSON                20.0   605 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   MIDDLEBORO            19.5  1112 AM  1/28  HAM RADIO
   BRIDGEWATER           18.0   800 AM  1/28  CO-OP
   ROCHESTER             18.0   800 AM  1/28  CO-OP

Sandwich, MA
...SUFFOLK COUNTY...
   SOUTH BOSTON          31.0   100 AM  1/28  TRAINED SPOTTER
   BOSTON                26.0   300 PM  1/27  NONE
   1 N EAST BOSTON       24.6   700 AM  1/28  AIRPORT
   WINTHROP              24.6   700 AM  1/28  NONE
   BOSTON CITY           17.6   534 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO

...WORCESTER COUNTY...
   AUBURN                36.0   947 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   LUNENBURG             36.0   717 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   3 WNW WORCESTER       34.5  1200 AM  1/28  AIRPORT
   CLINTON               34.1   419 PM  1/27  GENERAL PUBLIC
   WEST BOYLSTON         33.5   730 PM  1/27  COCORAHS
   WORCESTER             32.0   421 PM  1/27  NONE
   HOLDEN                32.0   546 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   UPTON                 31.5   754 AM  1/28  TRAINED SPOTTER
   MILFORD               31.0   800 AM  1/28  CO-OP
   SHREWSBURY            30.9   740 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   WHITINSVILLE          30.0   503 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   FITCHBURG             30.0   305 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   NORTHBOROUGH          29.3   217 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   STERLING              29.3   352 PM  1/27  NONE
   SPENCER               29.0   735 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   NORTH GRAFTON         29.0   805 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   LEOMINSTER            29.0   437 PM  1/27  NONE
   LANCASTER             28.5   302 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   BOYLSTON              28.0   534 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   LEICESTER             27.0   222 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   NORTHBORO             27.0  1217 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   HARVARD               27.0   910 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   BERLIN                26.5  1102 AM  1/27  GENERAL PUBLIC
   BOLTON                26.0   318 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   NORTH WORCESTER       24.0   914 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   DOUGLAS               24.0   312 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   MENDON                23.0   249 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   SOUTHBRIDGE           22.3   700 AM  1/28  TRAINED SPOTTER
   SOUTHBORO             22.1  1133 AM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   FISKDALE              21.0   800 AM  1/28  CO-OP
   OAKHAM                18.0   301 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   WESTMINSTER           16.0  1052 AM  1/28  HAM RADIO
   HUBBARDSTON           13.0   223 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   ASHBURNHAM            10.0   426 PM  1/27  CO-OP OBSERVER
   HARDWICK               9.3   800 AM  1/28  CO-OP


Monument Beach, MA
RHODE ISLAND

...KENT COUNTY...
   WEST WARWICK          20.5   954 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   2 NNW WARWICK         19.1  1200 AM  1/28  AIRPORT
   GREENE                18.0   351 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   WARWICK               11.0   930 AM  1/28  NONE

...NEWPORT COUNTY...
   TIVERTON              19.0   807 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   MIDDLETOWN            16.0   738 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER

...PROVIDENCE COUNTY...
   BURRILLVILLE          28.5   731 AM  1/28  GENERAL PUBLIC
   WEST GLOCESTER        25.6   714 AM  1/28  TRAINED SPOTTER
   N. CUMBERLAND         24.0  1140 AM  1/28  TRAINED SPOTTER
   GLENDALE              23.5   254 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   NORTH FOSTER          21.7   800 AM  1/28  CO-OP
   CRANSTON              19.5   828 AM  1/28  GENERAL PUBLIC
   PROVIDENCE/NORTH PRO  18.5   709 AM  1/28  GENERAL PUBLIC
   SMITHFIELD            18.0   627 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   CUMBERLAND            18.0   213 PM  1/27  NWS EMPLOYEE
   N. CIMBERLAND         18.0  1221 PM  1/27  NONE
   PAWTUCKET             17.0   925 AM  1/28  GENERAL PUBLIC
   PROVIDENCE            17.0   622 PM  1/27  MEDIA
   WOONSOCKET            16.0   800 AM  1/28  CO-OP
   NORTH PROVIDENCE      16.0  1215 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   1 W PROVIDENCE        15.5   509 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   EAST PROVIDENCE       14.5   837 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER

...WASHINGTON COUNTY...
   WESTERLY              21.0   624 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   HOPE VALLEY           18.5   527 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   NORTH KINGSTOWN       16.0  1208 AM  1/28  FINAL
   HOPKINTON             14.5   203 PM  1/27  NONE
   SAUNDERSTOWN          12.0  1145 AM  1/27  GENERAL PUBLIC

Bourne, MA
We also have some peak wind gust measurements, and I seem to be stuck in this font now:

MASSACHUSETTS

...ANZ235...
   6 WSW CUTTYHUNK         62   200 AM  1/27  BUOY BUZM3

...ANZ250...
   8 SSE BASS ROCKS        67   804 AM  1/27  BUOY 44029

...ANZ251...
   8 NNE MINOT             64   450 AM  1/27  BUOY 44013

...BARNSTABLE COUNTY...
   CHATHAM                 75   926 AM  1/27  CHH UPPER AIR
   CENTERVILLE             72   915 AM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   SAGAMORE                70   313 AM  1/27  GENERAL PUBLIC
   PROVINCETOWN            68   655 AM  1/27  PVC AWOS
   FALMOUTH                68   415 AM  1/27  FMH AWOS
   WELLFLEET               65   515 AM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   SOUTH DENNIS            64  1240 PM  1/27  EMERGENCY MANAGER
   BARNSTABLE              63   325 AM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   YARMOUTH                61  1229 AM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   2 NW CHATHAM            59   249 AM  1/27  ASOS
   EAST FALMOUTH           56   621 AM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   BOURNE                  54   623 AM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   WEST CHATHAM            50   100 AM  1/27  HAM RADIO

...BRISTOL COUNTY...
   FAIRHAVEN               64   340 AM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   FALL RIVER              55   506 AM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   3 NW NEW BEDFORD        55   120 AM  1/27  ASOS

...DUKES COUNTY...
   AQUINNAH                74   133 AM  1/27  GENERAL PUBLIC
   EDGARTOWN               67   641 AM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   3 S VINEYARD HAVEN      66   149 AM  1/27  ASOS
   OAK BLUFFS              60  1224 AM  1/27  HAM RADIO
The Great Salt Marsh, Duxbury MA 

...ESSEX COUNTY...
   ROCKPORT                64  1253 PM  1/27  MEDIA

...NANTUCKET COUNTY...
   NANTUCKET               78  1244 AM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   2 ESE NANTUCKET         76   535 AM  1/27  ASOS

...NORFOLK COUNTY...
   MILTON                  51   547 AM  1/27  COOP OBSERVER
   3 SSW MILTON            49   132 AM  1/27  ASOS

...PLYMOUTH COUNTY...
   HUMAROCK                74   553 AM  1/27  BROADCAST MEDIA
   PLYMOUTH                72  1039 AM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   4 SW PLYMOUTH           65  1002 AM  1/27  ASOS
   MARSHFIELD              61  1110 AM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   SCITUATE                58   251 AM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   NORWELL                 50   236 AM  1/27  HAM RADIO

...WORCESTER COUNTY...
   NORTH MILFORD           57   412 AM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   3 WNW WORCESTER         55   752 AM  1/27  ASOS
   NORTHBOROUGH            52   220 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER

RHODE ISLAND

...ANZ236...
   3 ENE KIEFER PARK       54   454 AM  1/27  NOS QPTR1
   1 SSW NAYATT            53   454 AM  1/27  NOS CPTR1

...KENT COUNTY...
   2 NNW WARWICK           49   431 AM  1/27  ASOS

...NEWPORT COUNTY...
   NEWPORT                 53   612 AM  1/27  NOS NWPR1
   4 NE NEWPORT            53   432 AM  1/27  ASOS
   MIDDLETOWN              50   130 AM  1/27  HAM RADIO

...WASHINGTON COUNTY...
   NARRAGANSETT            51   357 AM  1/27  HAM RADIO


Bourne, MA
Finally, we have some peak sustained (3 minutes or more, I think) winds:

MASSACHUSETTS

...ANZ235...
   6 WSW CUTTYHUNK         53   100 AM  1/27  BUOY BUZM3

...ANZ250...
   8 SSE BASS ROCKS        54   204 AM  1/27  BUOY 44029

...ANZ251...
   8 NNE MINOT             47   450 AM  1/27  BUOY 44013

...BARNSTABLE COUNTY...
   PROVINCETOWN            53   415 AM  1/27  PVC AWOS
   WELLFLEET               52   515 AM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   2 NE HYANNIS            45   957 AM  1/27  ASOS
   FALMOUTH                45   255 AM  1/27  FMH AWOS
   EAST FALMOUTH           44   621 AM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   CENTERVILLE             44   915 AM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   2 NW CHATHAM            33   728 AM  1/27  ASOS

...BRISTOL COUNTY...
   FALL RIVER              38  1242 AM  1/27  NOS BLTM3
   3 NW NEW BEDFORD        35   152 AM  1/27  ASOS

...DUKES COUNTY...
   3 S VINEYARD HAVEN      46   435 AM  1/27  ASOS

...ESSEX COUNTY...
   ROCKPORT                44   733 AM  1/27  MEDIA
   5 WNW BEVERLY           33   343 PM  1/27  ASOS

...NANTUCKET COUNTY...
   2 ESE NANTUCKET         59   609 AM  1/27  ASOS
   NANTUCKET               40  1006 AM  1/27  NOS NTKM3

...NORFOLK COUNTY...
   3 SSW MILTON            32   355 AM  1/27  ASOS

...PLYMOUTH COUNTY...
   4 SW PLYMOUTH           47   225 AM  1/27  ASOS
   MARSHFIELD              31  1135 AM  1/27  GHG AWOS

...SUFFOLK COUNTY...
   1 N EAST BOSTON         32   541 AM  1/27  ASOS

...WORCESTER COUNTY...
   3 WNW WORCESTER         31  1141 AM  1/27  ASOS

RHODE ISLAND

...ANZ236...
   1 SSW NAYATT            44   430 AM  1/27  NOS CPTR1
   3 ENE KIEFER PARK       39   812 AM  1/27  NOS QPTR1

...KENT COUNTY...
   2 NNW WARWICK           38   441 AM  1/27  ASOS

...NEWPORT COUNTY...
   NEWPORT                 39   542 AM  1/27  NOS NWPR1
   4 NE NEWPORT            37  1257 AM  1/27  ASOS

...WASHINGTON COUNTY...
   NEW SHOREHAM            43  1215 AM  1/27  BID AWOS
   NARRAGANSETT            37   900 AM  1/27  POTTERS COVE NAXR1

******************************************************************


Thanks to our embedded photographers, Tristan (Bourne), Sara (Duxbury Beach), Joe II (Duxbury Beach), Carter (Sandwich), Bill (Duxbury) and Jessica (Bourne).

Our author, in a moment of reflection....

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