Tuesday, February 17, 2015

Sharks In Cape Cod Bay

Duxbury Beach, MA

Cranberry County Magazine was in the house last week when Dr. Gregory Skomal spoke at the Duxbury Performing Arts Center, or whatever they call the auditorium in a Duxbury High School that used to be so familiar to me.

He was there thanks to the efforts of Jack Kent at Bayside Marine, via the Atlantic White Shark Conservancy. There were around 100 people in the crowd, which isn't bad on a snowy Thursday night.

Dr.Skomal isn't one of those doctors who can take out your appendix, psychoanalyze your childhood, or implant larger breasts onto you. Nope, he's a shark guy, the big fish in the Massachusetts shark study business.

If you saw reports of Great White Sharks being tagged off of Chatham for the last few summers, Dr. Skomal was the man with the harpoon. He tags the sharks with a variety of tracers, and records their movements. His research allows us to get somewhat of a grip on what I reluctantly call the Shark Problem.

It's not really a problem. "Sharks coming back to Massachusetts" is a sign that our ecosystem is healthy. It's just that this healthy ecosystem has what they call an apex predator at one end of it. This apex predator can appear out of nowhere and tear a swimmer in half. That's stretching "healthy" a bit. However, 10000% of all shark attacks on man happen in the environment of the shark, where the human is the intruder and sort of gets what he has coming to him.

But the key to understanding these things is to study them, and Dr. Skomal is in the business of learning about sharks. When he goes to Duxbury and speaks for 2 hours, he is then in the business of teaching us about sharks.

I didn't videotape or anything, so I'll just go through some highlights of his speech, as well as some of the fascinatin'-and-fun fish facts I unearthed prepping this article:
Scituate, MA

- We've been chasing Dr. Skomal for an interview for 2 years, back from when we were with Cape Cod TODAY. He wasn't being shady, we'd just always ask him during his peak activity periods. He promised us, in an email, that he'd get back to us in the winter, and he was as good as his word. I got ten minutes alone with him, even after I started asking my stupid questions. I did buy a hat, so I didn't totally waste his time.

- I barely resisted the urge to cut off one of his answers with "Love to prove that, wouldn't ya? Get your name in the National Geographic."

- Sharks are here for one reason. They eat seals. After that, it becomes, as we say, pure algebra... sharks eat seals, seals live on Cape Cod, so therefore....

- Seals are not the exclusive food of sharks. Many of the tagged sharks end up in the middle of the ocean, where no seals are found. They're eating something out there, and it most likely isn't Seal Jerky that they carry on long trips.

- There is no way to know exactly how many GWS can be found on Cape Cod. Dr. Skomal tagged 68 this summer, 43 of them males.

- From what I gather, Dr. Skomal gets shark sightings from the air, then closes in on the GWS aboard a fishing boat, and applies the tags with a modified harpoon.

- He uses 3 different types of tags, and even as I type this, I'm not sure if I remember all of them. My notes got messed up during the blizzard, and I hadn't saved them. He uses a tag that is read by a bouy, he uses one that is read like GPS by a satellite, and he uses another one that pops off the shark and contains his info.

- He also will put a camera on the sharks, and even has a torpedo-looking thing that will follow a tagged shark. He needs some Discovery Channel money for this project, however. At least one shark tried to eat it.

- The tagged sharks get names. Mary Lee, Weezie, a KIA soldier who I don't want to disrespect by mauling his name without my notes, Katharine, and so forth.

- You can name one yourself for $1000. The money goes to support research. It would suck to lose a relative to a shark attack, and then find out that the shark in question was named "Nomar," "Da'Quan," "Hugh G. Rection," or "Big Toothy."

- No, "Mary Lee" wasn't named for the Quint limerick from Jaws. I asked, and it was named after someone's Mom. Same goes for Weezie, who I thought might have been named by a fan of The Jeffersons.

Ocean Bluff, MA
- A tagged shark performed neither the Truro attack a few years ago, nor the Manomet attack last summer. Dr. Skomal said nothing that made me think he'd avoid letting that information out if a tagged shark ate a Cape Codder.

- Sharks are not unusual in Cape Cod Bay. You can see that a monster was caught off Duxbury (in February, nonetheless) in the 1930s. One of the three fatal shark attacks on Massachusetts people happened off Scituate, and one of the remaining two went down even further north, in Boston Harbor. The last fatal shark attack was off of Mattapoisett in the 1930s.

- Rhode Island and Connecticut have each had one fatal attack I could find anything about. The first white guy (I assume many Native Americans were devoured at some point, but they don't put that history anywhere that Google could find) to get a Sharkin' in the times of our forefathers was actually swimming in the East River when "the devil appeared, in the form of a fish" to bring the pain.

- New Jersey has had as many shark deaths in a month as Massachusetts has in her White Guy history.

- Sharks don't mature until their 20s and 30s, and they can live 70 years.

- Expect to get more GWS sightings in Cape Cod Bay. The seal population on Cape Cod is exploding, and the seals diffuse into the neighboring waters. Where the seals go, the sharks follow. Duxbury has long supported a small seal population, and it is expected to grow as Cape Cod's seals spread out.

- A shark off of Duxbury Beach isn't sick, lost, too old to hunt normally, or even out of his element. It's exactly where he belongs, and he's doing exactly what he is supposed to be doing.
Mattapoisett, MA

- If we look at Chatham as the big city for Massachusetts sharks, Duxbury would serve pretty much the same suburban purpose to sharks that it does to humans.... a less populated location, good scenery, tasty seafood, and the occasional kayaker.

- Duxbury has recently (the last ten years or so) been host to a large Sand Tiger Shark population. The STS is a frightening shark, a toothy fellow who can grow to 9 feet long. They are docile, and any attacks on humans are rare. They are usually associated with fishing or feeding. The STS has a mouth that is too small to cause a human fatality, but it could take some fingers off your hand.

- Old-timers say the ST sharks weren't around Duxbury until recently, although I had heard tales of sharks in the back marshes as a child. Sand Tiger Sharks are frequently caught off of the Powder Point Bridge.

- I had a dogfish wash into my cellar after the Halloween Gale of 1991.

- The titular shark character from the Jaws franchise is probably the most well-known fictional New Englander. Really, who else is in his league? Captain Ahab? Hester Prynne? The Pina Colada Song protagonist? Carrie? Spenser For Hire? Sam Malone? OK, maybe Sam Malone, but I'm still betting on Ol' Toothy.

- The shark from the Jaws novel was actually terrorizing a fictional Long Island community, but the movie made him a New Englander. Doesn't quite make up for Babe Ruth, but it's a start.

- Dr. Hooper was off the mark with his Territoriality theory, although the sharks as a species are now territorial to Cape Cod and eventually Duxbury. True territoriality would involve an individual shark driving away the other sharks, which I guess doesn't happen. Sharks have to move to breathe, and that movement sort of trumps the desire to hang around in one place.

- There are two kinds of shark attacks. One is Exploratory, where the human is some tasty looking but exotic menu item for a shark that he has a little nibble of. Granted, that little nibble might tear off your leg, but it also generally voids the human as a food source. The Truro attack on a boogie boarder was one of these types.

- The other attack has a name which I forgot, but it is basically when the shark is All In on the attack, and hits at full speed with a wide-open-mouth CHOMP. The Plymouth attack, which left dental records on a pretty solid kayak that even the OJ prosecution could get a conviction with, was one of these.

- Professionals like Dr. Skomal refer to attacks on humans as "interactions."

- The chances of a shark attacking you are less than you being hit by lightning or winning the Powerball. Even an increased shark presence in Cape Cod Bay won't raise those odds much.

- If you want to lower your chances, there are a few rational things you can do:

One, do nothing at all seal-like, and don't even go near seals.

Two, try to not go too deep in the water, as sharks like to strike from below. Neither of our recent attack victims (nor any of the historical ones I read about) had any idea a shark was around until it bit them.

Three, don't swim at dawn, dusk, or dark. This is when sharks hunt the most.

Four, don't swim near surfcasters or boats fishing close to shore.

 "Five" could very well be "Swim with people who are fatter than you." I couldn't pin Dr. Skomal down with this one, but he didn't deny it outright. A good way to view it would be "It makes perfect sense, but the limited data doesn't support a trend in that direction."

Mattapoisett, MA

- Wondering about racial bias in shark attacks? New England and New York have had 6 fatal shark attacks I found records of, and two non-lethal ones. At least one (a Connecticut one) and maybe another (the Rhode Island one) involved black people, and I seem to remember the Truro victim having a name similar to my lawyer's, if you catch my drift.

- Call the ratio of attacks on blacks as 1.5 attacks out of 6, which I think is 25%. This is disproportionate to the US black racial ratio of 15%, and even more so when factoring in that white people probably go to the beach in greater numbers. I have no records of fishermen who suffered shark bites, although that would probably up the Portagee numbers in the equation, perhaps substantially.

- Two attacks (Connecticut and Mattapoisett) were on children swimming out to meet a boat. Two other attacks (Scituate and Boston) involved a shark deliberately swamping a small boat to dislodge the people in it. Two attacks (Manomet and Truro) were on people using either kayaks or boogie boards.
Caught off the Gurnet

- The New York attack was in a river, while the Rhode Island one was a bit offshore. Scituate and Boston were far (5 miles in the Scituate case) offshore. Truro was 400 yards offshore, while Manomet was maybe 100 yards offshore.

- The Connecticut one and the Mattapoisett one were about the same as Manomet, with the Buzzards Bay attack being described as "a baseball throw from the end of the pier (the pier in the picture above)." The 1930s Duxbury shark I mentioned earlier was caught 4 or 5 miles offshore.

- Dr. Skomal is interested in doing research on sharks in Cape Cod Bay. He'd have loved to have gotten a tag in that Manomet shark. Duxbury residents shouldn't feel neglected, as Dr. Skomal said that the sudden (?) presence of Great White Sharks along South Shore beaches is an important factor in the studies of the region as a whole.

- Any kid who loves Shark Week (which, at last count was all of them) views Dr. Skomal as a rock star. He gave out several autographs to kids, many of whom looked star-struck.

- For all of those times you see reports about how American kids are fat, stupid X-Boxers, know that I saw kids under 5 feet tall asking Dr. Skomal about how sharks regulate the pressure of deep-sea dives, whether Duxbury ever had Megladon (if you ask Dr.Skomal about Megladons, he immediately says "Next Question," even to a 12 year old), and detailed logistical questions about patrolling South Shore beaches with drone cameras.

- The children asked these intelligent questions right after I finished my Weezie Jefferson question, in case you were wondering about Generation X vs the Millenials.

- Sharks will almost certainly merge with technology to change the nature of lifeguarding. Gone or lessened in importance will be some kid on a beach chair, New lifeguards may be fanned out 100 yards on small boats, equipped with fishfinders, radios, and a siren. Drones would also be invaluable, although any idea we came up with was far from foolproof.

- Closing beaches after a shark attack would be near-ineffective, as seals don't obey beach closures.

Duxbury Beach, MA
- Duxbury, with her long and uninhabited coastline, will be a prime spot for increased seal activity. This also means that they will see increased Monster Shark activity. Duxbury Beach is long and straight, exactly the sort of beach that is difficult to protect with shark netting.

- Dr. Skomal called Bullship on several of my get-rich-quick schemes that involved Great White Sharks. It would be very difficult to trap one in a bay as a tourist attraction. They get stuck in bays and ponds now and then, but it's impossible to know when they would do so. Once you had one, it would be difficult to feed it. You'd have to catch several seals a month, which is illegal. Even my own twisted research couldn't find out how many homeless people it would take to feed a shark. The shark wouldn't get enough fish to eat in, say, Buttermilk Bay.

- I also found out that, even if we trapped the shark and got him dependent on us for food, it would be unlikely that we could get him to perform tricks for us. I could find no records about a shark ever having been taught tricks.

- I did ask Dr. Skomal if he had ever met a friendly, seems-to-enjoy-being-around-people Great White Shark. He had never met one, although some sharks do associate boats with food. No, soft-bite attacks on humans are not a case of the shark saying "Hello" with a bit too much enthusiasm.

- I had a sense that he would get offended by my questions about catching a GWS from shore with a chain attached to a Jeep, so I left that one unasked. I can interview a fisherman some day to get that story written for a different article.

- I have a pretty good smoking habit, while my old friend Beth is a tri-athlete. About 3 summers ago, she passed me on the Might Die Suddenly scale, 100% because of the GWS presence in the area. I fully expect a triathalon attack in the future, and would be amazed if Duxbury were chosen as the site of a triathalon next summer.

- Most sharks are snowbirds, in that they summer up here before returning to the SE USA coast for winter. Some sharks hang around well into the winter.

- Props to Dr. Skomal, Bayside Marine, and the Atlantic White Shark Conservancy.

Plymouth, MA

Thursday, February 12, 2015

Another Blizzard? Why Not?

Bourne, MA

"Every normal man must be tempted, at times, to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats."

- H.L. Mencken.

I hear ya, H.... we all love a little sugar on our cereal, but this is getting rucking fidiculous. We can't seem to begin or end a week without a major snow event, and this weekend.... oh, we'll get to that in a minute.

We'll be getting a bit of snow today, maybe 2-4" over SE Massachusetts. I'd bet on the 2" more than the 4". That barely makes a blip on the radar, with what we have coming this weekend. It really gets friggin' ponderous after a while.

We're not Canada, or Alaska, or Wisconsin, or even upstate New York. We get snow, but it's that pleasant Currier & Ives snow, the kind you go caroling in and build talking snowmen in. This is some straight-up Siberia we'e getting, and it sucks so hard that you are physically pulled towards the snowbank.

You start to wonder if Pat Robertson might have been on to something, and that we may right now be getting Smited by the good lord for some sin I can't quite put my finger on. Maybe it's gay marriage, maybe it's Governor Baker, and a great part of me feels that God is making us pay for the Snow Bowl/Tuck Rule game against the Oakland Raiders. We have offended ye, oh Lord, and the payback is Powder.

You could sort of see it coming. This is shaping up as a bad, bad, bad winter. Blizzards are a part of bad winters. You add the extra bad when we get a second blizzard, and throw in the third bad if the second blizzard happens before you clean up the first one. It gets even worse if it snows between those events, including two huge storms.

The Groundhog Storm and last Monday's storm, which dumped 2 feet over a wide area, barely crack the headlines. The Groundhog Storm was lucky enough to fall on a holiday, but I'm actually referring to a fairly historical storm from this week as "last Monday's storm." I can't see Sebastian Junger naming a book that.

Brant Rock, MA
Here are a few things to ponder about this Snowathon we've been having:

- One of the reasons that the Blizzard of '78 was so bad (and, concurrently, why no one talks about the 1969 storm that dropped .8" less than the '78 gale) is that the Blizz fell shortly (17 days) after we got nearly two feet of snow.

That snow had nowhere to go but on top of the old snow, which hadn't melted much. This led to those mammoth snow piles you recall if you lived through '78.

We have the same scenario now, just with more snow already on the ground. This storm isn't forecast to be a 2 footer, but any additional snow is trouble.

- You may not see 100% of your supermarket's parking lot until May. We had drifts last into June in the interior a few years ago.

- As you know, a blizzard is when you have three hours of blowing snow, 35+ mph winds, and markedly-reduced visibility. We should have that, no problem.
Sagamore, MA

- We wouldn't need much snow to have a blizzard, provided it is blowing around a lot. This will be important to keep in mind on Cape Cod, where a smaller amount of snow will still bring blizzard conditions with the wind she'll be seeing.

- Buffalo once had a blizzard just from a windstorm billowing up already-fallen snow that was resting on frozen Lake Erie. With our snowpack, that could happen with this storm even if we got no snow from it... but don't you worry, we'll get lots of snow.

- Beaches had tons of rocks and sand wash up against the seawalls. That will make for a ramp that will amp up an otherwise modest storm tide. This tide will slam into very vulnerable coastal locations who A) have nowhere for the floodwater to go, and B) have already taken a blizzardy beating a few weeks ago.

- We're some time away, but I think that the worst of the storm may high-tide us with the north wind. That would be good news for places like Chatham or Plymouth, and bad news for places like Scituate or Sandwich.

- A big issue will be the track of the storm. American forecast models show an Alberta Clipper plowing through New York and moving over Cape Cod on Saturday night and Sunday. The European models show it coming at us through Pennsylvania and tracking east just under Nantucket.

The American model speaks of heavy snow for coastal Massachusetts, about the same area that got slammed in the last storm. SE Mass would be spared the heavy hit, and the trouble would run from Boston north into Maine. The European model is more indicative of a SE Massachusetts inclusion in the epicenter.

It's the difference between 4-8" of snow and more than a foot of it.

- Cranberry County has taken a beating this year. We're not as bad as Worcester (we never are) or even as bad as MetroWest, but we bore the brunt of the last storm (Cohasset had 26.5" of snow), and stand a good chance of getting socked again.
Bridgewater, MA

Duxbury, for instance, got 2 feet from the blizzard. They got 6 more inches 3 days later, and then got 18" or so from the Groundhog storm. They got about 6 inches between that storm and last Monday, when they got almost 2 more feet. They have a very good chance of adding another foot or two this weekend.

- Duxbury is the same physical size as Boston, and has much more open area that needs plowing. Boston has 700,000 residents and countless businesses paying taxes to support clearing out Boston, while Duxbury has 13,000 or so.

- Truro, for instance, probably has a whole town to plow with the same amount of people you might find in two Boston housing projects that take up a supermarket's footprint on a map.

- Winds will be gusting up over 60 mph for much of the storm. That will snap power lines. Forecast low temperatures for relatively-temperate Bourne will be two degrees above zero. It should be fun with no heat and lights.

- Those winds and temperatures will make it very, very dangerous to be outside. If your car breaks down and you're a mile from help, you may die trying to get to it.

- If it helps ease the strain any, you can't call off school during school vacation, so we won't be adding June days to the school year for this storm. There is, somewhere, one family in Massachusetts who will be staring at the TV Monday, wondering why there are no school cancellations, and I wish I could be a guest in their kitchen that morning.

- Boy, I'd hate to live near a river when all of this snow starts melting in the spring.

- I haven't heard a peep from any local forecasters regarding a changeover to rain for anyone, even Cape Cod. That would be one of the things that could change with a wobble in the forecast track.

- Want me to mention that we weather geeks are already monitoring the possibility of another snow event, about a week from yesterday or so? Didn't think so!

- Please check out the GoFundMe page for Officer Jared MacDonald of the Bourne PD.

- Photo credits: Tristan, Jessica, Abby and Michelle.

We'll be back with an update as the storm nears. Remember, the storm's track could wobble a bit, and we would get off the hook . That doesn't seem likely, but I like to throw a disclaimer into these things.




Saturday, January 31, 2015

Groundhog Day Storm Coming, And Storm Damage Discussion

God is chilin', Brant Rock, MA
"He can surely turn the tide.... he can push the tempest byyyyyyyyy..."

We hope you enjoyed last week's atmospheric entertainment, because we have another pile of powder pending.

An appetizer wil be served today, with the coast picking up 2" from a storm offshore. The storm could clip the Outer Cape harder, to the tune of 4" or so. It's snowing in Buzzards Bay as I start this (6 AM), so be prepared. It's just a preliminary to the main event, however.

The fun starts Sunday night, and should go straight through Monday. This won't be a blizzard to my knowledge, but more of a sustained snow event.

We'll get to all of that- and more- in a second, but let's scope some more damage first.

Duxbury Beach, MA
Yes, but the other 364 days of the year on Duxbury Beach are very nice.

We were taking the pictures during bright sunshine, so I apologize if some of the shots don't look gloomy enough.

Duxbury Beach, Brant Rock, Ocean Bluff and Green Harbor all took it on the chin during the Blizzard last week, especially Ocean Bluff and Brant Rock.

I'm lucky that I don't still live on Duxbury Beach, because I was heavily reliant on the Brant Rock Super Market for a lot of my food and tobacco. I'd need a boat and a deathwish to get there during the Blizz.

I did make it there during the Halloween Gale in 1991, but that was between tides and I had a Jeep.

Back to the snowstorm, yes....

Ocean Bluff, MA

This will be a Groundhog, a rare weather-watcher term for a February 2nd snowfall. It's usually a terrible omen, worse than rai-ai-ain on your wedding day. I know a girl who got married during a tropical storm to some jerk, and it lasted maybe 6 months.

Groundhog Day, as you know, is when a rat in Pennsylvania crawls out of his little burrow. Depending on whether he sees his shadow or not, we get a longer winter or an early spring. It's an old tradition, brought to Pennsylvania by German immigrants.

If his shadow scares him and gives us 6 more weeks of deep winter, you can only imagine how he is going to react if he comes out and sees this particular stretch of weather we're having.

It will be a lot like how Hunter Thompson described Ross Perot... "He came out of his hidey-hole and saw that there were indeed many shadows about, and none of them were his."

Poof! Right back down the hole for six weeks. See you when the weather improves... in April.

Duxbury Beach, MA
This sounds like Doomsaying, and it is so to an extent. I'm not one of those scientific weathermen, you can see one of those on the TV up in Boston. I am more attuned to omens, local knowledge, numerical patterns, pain in certain joints, nautical lore, horse-sense.... you know, I make shit up.

However, I do as well as the TV folks do, and beat them to the punch on the Blizz last week.

I do follow their forecasts, and they are on top of this storm we have coming Monday. We all seem to agree, although I'd argue (not too heartily, however) against a mix with rain on Cape Cod... something I, personally, was wrong about in the Blizz.

Ocean Bluff, MA
WBZ has most of Massachusetts getting a 6-12".

WCVB has 6-12", with some mixing on the Cape. No one else has a mix presently forecast.

WHDH is going all-in with a 12-15" forecast for south of the Pike.

FOX gives us 9-13", with the worst in a Providence/New Bedford/Plymouth triangle.

NECN puts the 12" mark along a line from Duxbury to Providence.

Accuweather gives Bourne 7.9", Duxbury gets the same, Orleans gets 8.3", Bridgewater 7.7", and New Bedford gets 7.8". We'll get some more variety to those fiures as the storm nears.

There is some concern about coastal flooding. Winds aren't going to be insane, but there is a full moon high tide on Tuesday. It is an astronomically low full moon tide (Brant Rock has an 8.6 feet on Sunday night and 9.7 feet on Monday, as opposed to the 10.4 and 10.1 tides they had Monday and Tuesday, or the 11.5 they had a week before with the new moon), but the area is very vulnerable.

Brant Rock, MA
Using the port of New Betty as our early warning station, we'd have a midnight start running through 9 PM Monday.

It is a bad omen that the snow will start right about when a lot of bars are emptying after the Super Bowl.

The oncoming storm will blend nicely with the drunken revelers to produce what will be a distinct local disaster, Hurricane Brady.

It will be worse if the Pats lose, or even fail to cover. Drunks in a snowstorm are bad enough without factoring in potentially suicidal ones.

Ocean Bluff, MA

Note that we have had very little melting between now and then, so this snow will fall on top of all of that lovely snow that you already have.

There is talk of more snow on Thursday, but we'll bury that bridge when we get to it.

That would make 4 storms in seven days, or 5 storms in 10 days (one of which was a monstahhh blizzard). That's straight-up Siberian, babe. Mother Nature shouldn't go and do me like that.

This is also happening during a frigid stretch. We'll have a low of 5 degrees in Buzzards Bay on Monday morning, and a high of 17 degrees on Tuesday.

Marshfield, MA
That's the infamous break in the seawall that had Marsh Vegas all over the news during the Blizz. It's a catastrophe of the highest order, right in the big green heart of the Irish Riviera.

I get a little confused as to just where the Marshfield villages of Ocean Bluff and Brant Rock begin and end. I should know this, I lived in the area forever and am somewhat of a historian/map person. Duxbury Beach and Green Harbor are divided by a clear town line, some socioeconomic factors, and a giant gap in their shared seawall.

Ocean Bluff and Brant Rock aren't so easy, however. I use that Ice Church in the top photo as the cutoff point for the villages, with one wall facing the sea, one facing Ocean Bluff, one facing Brant Rock, and one facing Green Harbor in the distance. It's next to the Brant Rock Super Market, but on the bottom of the little hill that Ocean Bluff Package Store is on.

The newly-formed border village of Ocean Rock, MA!

It's never a good sign for the houses when the tide breaks through a yard-thick seawall that has stood up to the Blizzard of '78, the Halloween Gale, and everything else since her 1950s birthdate.

I know that at least two houses were condemned, and several more may be on the chopping block from what I saw. Notice that the piles of stones against the surviving seawall give the ocean a nice ramp with which to tee off on these waterfront homes.

The boulders you see around it were partially put there to support the wall, but many others came to visit during the height of the Blizz.

You never realize just how many rocks are on the beach until the sea starts pouring them through a break in the seawall.

Brant Rock, MA
When the rocks and sand come through that break ("Not listening in high school," "stoner memory loss," "stubborness," and "laziness" are all claiming responsibility for my refusal to open the dictionary site and see if "breaches" are what happens to walls and "breeches" are what happens to pants) in the seawall, they have to go somewhere. Those two somewheres are 1) somebody's house, and 2) the road.

Having lived next to the boat ramp opening in the Duxbury Beach seawall for 32 years, I can assure you that the ocean loves to pour itself through a breach. You get a funnel effect similar to what destroyed Bangladesh in that cyclone George Harrison did the concert about.

That's not some hick side street in the picture up above, that's Route 139 through Marshfield. The picture below is from my old house in Duxbury Beach.

Duxbury Beach, MA
Brant Rock and Ocean Bluff usually have higher seawalls than Duxbury Beach, and-when coupled with their northern facing beaches- are spared heavier storm damage. All of those flooding shots you see of Arthur and Pat's are caused by seawall splashover flowing to the lowest point in the neighborhood, not by direct wave action. You can eat a  nice meal at the Fairview in storms that make Haddad's Aptly-Named Ocean Cafe unapproachable... you just have to get there by boat.

However, sand and stones shift with the tide, and much of Scituate is washing down and filling up the armored coastline of Marshachusetts. When you can step down to the beach from the top of the seawall like you can in Duxbury, you don't really have much protection left. A five-foot storm surge means that waves roll directly into houses. I've been in that, and it isn't fun.

The damage you see in these pictures are indeed direct wave action damage. At this point, we're not that far from a Sharknado scenario, where a Great White is washed ashore and eats someone coming out of the Venus II. It's not pretty, even when shot well.

Brant Rock, MA
There are other things to worry about with storms. You'll notice that a lot of houses and signs in these pictures have a layer of ice on them. That's seawater, frozen.

Yes, the ocean can freeze. After the Blizzard of '78, there were giant ice floe blocks extending down from the seawall to the low tide line on Duxbury Beach. This wasn't that bad, but that ice you see on the houses can collapse roofs, tear off gutters, break windows, or fall on your friggin' Marsh Vegas head.

It does look cool, though. I'd leave it up until the newsies stop coming 'round.

Note that the houses and the church with the ice coatings are across the street from the ocean, with a row of large houses in front of them. That's some ridiculous seaspray, player.

Ocean Bluff, MA
If they still make Icehouse beer, this guy should drink it. Lots of it.

Ocean Bluff, MA

The picture below shows how they are patching the breach in the seawall.

Brant Rock, MA
As you might imagine, Brant Rock and Ocean Bluff are high on the list of seawall projects facing emergency status.

We did a whole huge ahhhticle about it back at the old paper, check it out, it will scare both you and your wallet.

Here's my old street in Duxbury Beach down below, taking shots but still looking good. The public stairs pictured there were my main hangout as a youth... right up until I was about 30, to be honest.
Duxbury Beach, MA
Duxbury Beach suffers mightily in storms. It would probably be on the news more, but the only road in and out is impassable for about 4 hours during a storm tide. Your morning news reporter wouldn't get back to the mainland until the evening news was on.

Duxbury Beach is also, aside from Cable Hill, 100% at or below sea level. My cellar there was 3 feet below sea level.

Ocean Road North doesn't look that bad, until you realize that it isn't normally a dirt road. Duxbury Beach got off easy in this storm, hardly any damage at all. Brant Rock took the title with this storm.

Duxbury Beach, MA
One of the fun parts of being from Duxbury is that we're one of the few places in America that act snobby towards Cape Cod.

However, Cape Cod took their lumps with this storm.

Sandwich is a north-facing beach, and is normally protected by the Outer Cape. It also used to have a dune and replenishing sand-wash from the South Shore. Those things are gone now, and they are taking Scituate-style damage when a storm's wind turns North at the wrong time.

You can be hit by a wave while driving down Route 6A if you aren't careful, player.

Sandwich, MA
There are positives to storms like these. If you're into Storm Porn, you can live in it if you save wisely and watch the local market. I'm sure there are some deals forthcoming in, say, the Brant Rock/Ocean Bluff area.

If a Democrat in the Oval office isn't enough for you and you still want to see rich people suffer, you can enjoy a chuckle or two here. However, more of these houses are owned over several generations of blue-collar family history, and not everyone can just snap their fingers and make this all go away.

You can also get free lobster.

Duxbury Beach, MA
The storms wash ashore a little bit of the local lobstering apparatus every time we get huge waves, and the traps that come ashore often have tasty little stowaways in them.

It was a more common thing to see in the 1970s, before lobstermen (and women) switched from the wood pots to the wire ones. They, uhm, wash ashore less frequently for some reason, but no one is perfect.

The lobstermen got out on the beaches as soon as they were able to, to search for their gear. Every beach kid I knew was schooled to not touch the gear, but the lifted lobsters were the price for that respect. While I never poached one myself (I'm allergic), I can recall several lobsterfests after these Shady Harvests.

It may be an urban legend among beachfolk, but I think that lobstermen can shoot you if they catch you poaching their pots. I know a few, I'll ask them once I finish this and post it on the Facialbook.

Duxbury Beach, with the Gurnet in the background.

It was not unusual for lobsters to wash ashore in storms before they were a) harvested commercially, and b) depleted massively. They were easy food for the Wampanoags and Pilgrims. It was go-to poor people food, Soul Food for the Pilgrim Poor.

Indentured servants in Plymouth during the Pilgrim times were fed lobster enough that they complained to at least one public official about it. Time, tide, water temperature, evolution and overfishing have pushed them deeper offshore in modern times.

The lobsters were pushed offshore, not the poor people. They get pushed inland, by storms and gentrification.

At least one live lobster came ashore sans lobster trap, although a resourceful seagull may have plucked him from a damaged trap. Either way, he didn't last long.

Duxbury Beach, MA


Photos by Jessica, Stephen, Murph, Sara, Carter and Joe.





Wednesday, January 28, 2015

Local Stations Blow The Forecast, Blizzard Snowfall Totals

Duxbury Bay, MA
Holy Mackerel! What a storm!

We had ridiculous snow, possibly record setting in some places. We had coastal flooding that was tearing down seawalls in Green Harbor and coastlines in Nauset. We have widespread, multiple-day school closings, and we even had a statewide driving ban.

Not too shabby, especially for a storm which the local news stations never mentioned until 48 hours before it started. I had an article up a full news cycle before the local TV forecasters (who were too busy hyping the piddling Saturday snow) did, a truly disgraceful black mark on their reputations.

When I published, only NECN had anything up about a potential blizzard, and their headline ended in a question mark. Accuweather, who I don't work for, had the blizzard forecast and some conservative snowfall totals up several hours before local stations even mentioned that it may snow.

Several generations of Boston forecasters have enhanced the town's reputation for spotty forecasting. The Blizzard of '78, the Halloween Gale/Perfect Storm, Hurricane Earl and now this storm... all blown forecasts to some extent, and forecasts that left Massachusetts residents unaware and unprepaed.

Of course, the Boston forecasters are scientists, and have forgotten more about weather than I shall I ever learn. I'm a sportswriter, by trade. But I also was the one who got the forecast correct...

Bourne, MA

This was a major blizzard, and I'd imagine that some local town records were challenged. It basically snowed from about noon Monday through Wednesday morning, heavy and hard like a fat porn star.

Cranberry County's coastline also furthered our reputation for impact snow events. We get rain when the rest of the state gets snow a lot... but when we get snow, baby, we don't f*ck with the small totals.

I'm always more impressed when Plymouth gets 15" at sea level than when some higher elevation gets 20". Plymouth pretty much doubled that 15" figure, and flooding was catastrophic all up and down the South Shore. Worcester doesn't get coastal flooding.

Marsh Vegas seems to have won the Worst Storm Damage award, as they lost some seawall and several houses. Scituate gets most of the attention, but Marshfield and especially Duxbury usually get the worst damage.

Duxbury people, when walking around Scituate, always remark that they (Scituate gets ridiculous flooding, don't get me wrong... the Duxbuy/Scituate coastal flood rivalry involves a lot of one-upping comparisons, akin to two guys in Hell arguing about who has the better heater) couldn't flood that badly. When asked why, the answer is always "The beach houses in Scituate are all 1940s-looking... the 1940s beach houses have all been destroyed in Duxbury."

Thusly, Duxbuy Beach is the epicenter of "Watch some yuppie over-renovate a cottage, then move away the next year after they see a nor'easter up close for the first time" activity. Veterans of that stretch of coastline can usually spot these types as they are moving in.

Duxbury Beach, MA


Let's peep some snowfall totals, shall we?

Remember, these are NWS trained spotters, which means that they were told to find an undisturbed meadow and average out 10 yardstick measurements. If they say that your town only got 11" but you couldn't find your car in your own driveway, remember that snowfall totals can vary wildly as you cross a town. Duxbuy, to use a local example, is about as large physically as Boston.

For instance, most of you remember the Blizzard of '78 as a snow event. "I could step out of my 10th story apartment window into a snowbank," and so forth. On Duxbury Beach, I never saw a flake. I remember that storm as a coastal flood, of the highest order.

Also remember that Boston measures at the airport, which is right on the coast. That gives them some odd totals. Marshfield, Hanson and one of the Plymouth measurements are also airport-based.

Oh yeah, snowfall totals....

Duxbury Beach, MA


...BARNSTABLE COUNTY...
   WEST HARWICH          30.5   915 AM  1/28  SPOTTER
   HYANNIS               27.0   748 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   EAST FALMOUTH         24.8  1000 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   WEST YARMOUTH         24.0   250 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   HARWICH               23.0   749 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   NORTH FALMOUTH        22.5  1055 AM  1/28  HAM RADIO
   SOUTH HYANNIS         22.0  1054 AM  1/28  HAM RADIO
   CENTERVILLE           21.0   700 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   SOUTH DENNIS          18.2   728 PM  1/27  EMERGENCY MANAGER
   ORLEANS               17.6   547 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   WELLFLEET             17.5   136 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   CHATHAM               17.1   800 AM  1/28  CO-OP
   BREWSTER              14.0   308 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO

...BRISTOL COUNTY...
   EAST FREETOWN         26.0   458 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   FALL RIVER            24.1  1111 AM  1/28  HAM RADIO
   SOMERSET              24.0  1235 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   ACUSHNET              22.2   605 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   NEW BEDFORD           21.0   808 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   TAUNTON               20.8   416 AM  1/28  NWS OFFICE
   MANSFIELD             19.8   548 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   NORTH DIGHTON         19.5   839 AM  1/28  HAM RADIO
   FAIRHAVEN             19.0   629 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   NORTH ATTLEBORO       18.9   306 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   WEST ACUSHNET         17.5   808 AM  1/28  HAM RADIO
   NORTH ACUSHNET        16.0   806 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO

...DUKES COUNTY...
   OAK BLUFFS            27.0   237 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   EDGARTOWN             20.0   800 AM  1/28  CO-OP
   WEST TISBURY          19.0  1053 AM  1/28  HAM RADIO

...NANTUCKET COUNTY...
   NANTUCKET             12.0   411 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO

Bourne, MA
...NORFOLK COUNTY...
   SHARON                31.0   923 AM  1/28  GENERAL PUBLIC
   MILTON                30.8   927 AM  1/28  COOP OBSERVER
   3 SSW MILTON          30.8   800 AM  1/28  BLUE HILL
   BRAINTREE             26.0   407 PM  1/27  GENERAL PUBLIC
   BLUE HILLS            25.5   100 PM  1/27  CO-OP OBSERVER
   WALPOLE               24.6   619 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   NORTH WEYMOUTH        24.5  1119 AM  1/28  HAM RADIO
   QUINCY                24.5   840 PM  1/27  GENERAL PUBLIC
   SOUTH WEYMOUTH        24.0   907 PM  1/27  MEDIA
   NEEDHAM HEIGHTS       23.0   956 AM  1/28  TRAINED SPOTTER
   WEYMOUTH              23.0   404 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   RANDOLPH              23.0  1003 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   NORWOOD               22.3   700 AM  1/28  NWS EMPLOYEE
   FOXBORO               22.0   624 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   WRENTHAM              22.0  1249 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   FRANKLIN              21.0   800 AM  1/28  CO-OP
   NORFOLK               20.0  1251 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   MEDFIELD              19.0   430 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   COHASSET              18.3   235 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   WEST WALPOLE          18.0  1107 AM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   STOUGHTON             17.0   429 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   MILLIS                16.5   620 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO

...PLYMOUTH COUNTY...
   PLYMOUTH              30.7  1139 PM  1/27  GENERAL PUBLIC
   NORWELL               28.0  1116 AM  1/28  HAM RADIO
   KINGSTON              28.0   526 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   MARSHFIELD            25.0   841 AM  1/28  TRAINED SPOTTER
   HANOVER               24.0   736 PM  1/27  GENERAL PUBLIC
   HULL                  23.5   817 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   PEMBROKE              23.0   432 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   ROCKLAND              22.0   913 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   BROCKTON              22.0  1135 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   WEST WAREHAM          21.5   230 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   CARVER                21.3   900 PM  1/27  NWS EMPLOYEE
   HANSON                20.0   605 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   MIDDLEBORO            19.5  1112 AM  1/28  HAM RADIO
   BRIDGEWATER           18.0   800 AM  1/28  CO-OP
   ROCHESTER             18.0   800 AM  1/28  CO-OP

Sandwich, MA
...SUFFOLK COUNTY...
   SOUTH BOSTON          31.0   100 AM  1/28  TRAINED SPOTTER
   BOSTON                26.0   300 PM  1/27  NONE
   1 N EAST BOSTON       24.6   700 AM  1/28  AIRPORT
   WINTHROP              24.6   700 AM  1/28  NONE
   BOSTON CITY           17.6   534 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO

...WORCESTER COUNTY...
   AUBURN                36.0   947 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   LUNENBURG             36.0   717 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   3 WNW WORCESTER       34.5  1200 AM  1/28  AIRPORT
   CLINTON               34.1   419 PM  1/27  GENERAL PUBLIC
   WEST BOYLSTON         33.5   730 PM  1/27  COCORAHS
   WORCESTER             32.0   421 PM  1/27  NONE
   HOLDEN                32.0   546 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   UPTON                 31.5   754 AM  1/28  TRAINED SPOTTER
   MILFORD               31.0   800 AM  1/28  CO-OP
   SHREWSBURY            30.9   740 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   WHITINSVILLE          30.0   503 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   FITCHBURG             30.0   305 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   NORTHBOROUGH          29.3   217 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   STERLING              29.3   352 PM  1/27  NONE
   SPENCER               29.0   735 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   NORTH GRAFTON         29.0   805 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   LEOMINSTER            29.0   437 PM  1/27  NONE
   LANCASTER             28.5   302 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   BOYLSTON              28.0   534 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   LEICESTER             27.0   222 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   NORTHBORO             27.0  1217 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   HARVARD               27.0   910 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   BERLIN                26.5  1102 AM  1/27  GENERAL PUBLIC
   BOLTON                26.0   318 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   NORTH WORCESTER       24.0   914 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   DOUGLAS               24.0   312 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   MENDON                23.0   249 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   SOUTHBRIDGE           22.3   700 AM  1/28  TRAINED SPOTTER
   SOUTHBORO             22.1  1133 AM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   FISKDALE              21.0   800 AM  1/28  CO-OP
   OAKHAM                18.0   301 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   WESTMINSTER           16.0  1052 AM  1/28  HAM RADIO
   HUBBARDSTON           13.0   223 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   ASHBURNHAM            10.0   426 PM  1/27  CO-OP OBSERVER
   HARDWICK               9.3   800 AM  1/28  CO-OP


Monument Beach, MA
RHODE ISLAND

...KENT COUNTY...
   WEST WARWICK          20.5   954 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   2 NNW WARWICK         19.1  1200 AM  1/28  AIRPORT
   GREENE                18.0   351 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   WARWICK               11.0   930 AM  1/28  NONE

...NEWPORT COUNTY...
   TIVERTON              19.0   807 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   MIDDLETOWN            16.0   738 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER

...PROVIDENCE COUNTY...
   BURRILLVILLE          28.5   731 AM  1/28  GENERAL PUBLIC
   WEST GLOCESTER        25.6   714 AM  1/28  TRAINED SPOTTER
   N. CUMBERLAND         24.0  1140 AM  1/28  TRAINED SPOTTER
   GLENDALE              23.5   254 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   NORTH FOSTER          21.7   800 AM  1/28  CO-OP
   CRANSTON              19.5   828 AM  1/28  GENERAL PUBLIC
   PROVIDENCE/NORTH PRO  18.5   709 AM  1/28  GENERAL PUBLIC
   SMITHFIELD            18.0   627 PM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   CUMBERLAND            18.0   213 PM  1/27  NWS EMPLOYEE
   N. CIMBERLAND         18.0  1221 PM  1/27  NONE
   PAWTUCKET             17.0   925 AM  1/28  GENERAL PUBLIC
   PROVIDENCE            17.0   622 PM  1/27  MEDIA
   WOONSOCKET            16.0   800 AM  1/28  CO-OP
   NORTH PROVIDENCE      16.0  1215 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   1 W PROVIDENCE        15.5   509 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   EAST PROVIDENCE       14.5   837 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER

...WASHINGTON COUNTY...
   WESTERLY              21.0   624 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   HOPE VALLEY           18.5   527 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   NORTH KINGSTOWN       16.0  1208 AM  1/28  FINAL
   HOPKINTON             14.5   203 PM  1/27  NONE
   SAUNDERSTOWN          12.0  1145 AM  1/27  GENERAL PUBLIC

Bourne, MA
We also have some peak wind gust measurements, and I seem to be stuck in this font now:

MASSACHUSETTS

...ANZ235...
   6 WSW CUTTYHUNK         62   200 AM  1/27  BUOY BUZM3

...ANZ250...
   8 SSE BASS ROCKS        67   804 AM  1/27  BUOY 44029

...ANZ251...
   8 NNE MINOT             64   450 AM  1/27  BUOY 44013

...BARNSTABLE COUNTY...
   CHATHAM                 75   926 AM  1/27  CHH UPPER AIR
   CENTERVILLE             72   915 AM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   SAGAMORE                70   313 AM  1/27  GENERAL PUBLIC
   PROVINCETOWN            68   655 AM  1/27  PVC AWOS
   FALMOUTH                68   415 AM  1/27  FMH AWOS
   WELLFLEET               65   515 AM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   SOUTH DENNIS            64  1240 PM  1/27  EMERGENCY MANAGER
   BARNSTABLE              63   325 AM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   YARMOUTH                61  1229 AM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   2 NW CHATHAM            59   249 AM  1/27  ASOS
   EAST FALMOUTH           56   621 AM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   BOURNE                  54   623 AM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   WEST CHATHAM            50   100 AM  1/27  HAM RADIO

...BRISTOL COUNTY...
   FAIRHAVEN               64   340 AM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   FALL RIVER              55   506 AM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   3 NW NEW BEDFORD        55   120 AM  1/27  ASOS

...DUKES COUNTY...
   AQUINNAH                74   133 AM  1/27  GENERAL PUBLIC
   EDGARTOWN               67   641 AM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   3 S VINEYARD HAVEN      66   149 AM  1/27  ASOS
   OAK BLUFFS              60  1224 AM  1/27  HAM RADIO
The Great Salt Marsh, Duxbury MA 

...ESSEX COUNTY...
   ROCKPORT                64  1253 PM  1/27  MEDIA

...NANTUCKET COUNTY...
   NANTUCKET               78  1244 AM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   2 ESE NANTUCKET         76   535 AM  1/27  ASOS

...NORFOLK COUNTY...
   MILTON                  51   547 AM  1/27  COOP OBSERVER
   3 SSW MILTON            49   132 AM  1/27  ASOS

...PLYMOUTH COUNTY...
   HUMAROCK                74   553 AM  1/27  BROADCAST MEDIA
   PLYMOUTH                72  1039 AM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   4 SW PLYMOUTH           65  1002 AM  1/27  ASOS
   MARSHFIELD              61  1110 AM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   SCITUATE                58   251 AM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   NORWELL                 50   236 AM  1/27  HAM RADIO

...WORCESTER COUNTY...
   NORTH MILFORD           57   412 AM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   3 WNW WORCESTER         55   752 AM  1/27  ASOS
   NORTHBOROUGH            52   220 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER

RHODE ISLAND

...ANZ236...
   3 ENE KIEFER PARK       54   454 AM  1/27  NOS QPTR1
   1 SSW NAYATT            53   454 AM  1/27  NOS CPTR1

...KENT COUNTY...
   2 NNW WARWICK           49   431 AM  1/27  ASOS

...NEWPORT COUNTY...
   NEWPORT                 53   612 AM  1/27  NOS NWPR1
   4 NE NEWPORT            53   432 AM  1/27  ASOS
   MIDDLETOWN              50   130 AM  1/27  HAM RADIO

...WASHINGTON COUNTY...
   NARRAGANSETT            51   357 AM  1/27  HAM RADIO


Bourne, MA
Finally, we have some peak sustained (3 minutes or more, I think) winds:

MASSACHUSETTS

...ANZ235...
   6 WSW CUTTYHUNK         53   100 AM  1/27  BUOY BUZM3

...ANZ250...
   8 SSE BASS ROCKS        54   204 AM  1/27  BUOY 44029

...ANZ251...
   8 NNE MINOT             47   450 AM  1/27  BUOY 44013

...BARNSTABLE COUNTY...
   PROVINCETOWN            53   415 AM  1/27  PVC AWOS
   WELLFLEET               52   515 AM  1/27  HAM RADIO
   2 NE HYANNIS            45   957 AM  1/27  ASOS
   FALMOUTH                45   255 AM  1/27  FMH AWOS
   EAST FALMOUTH           44   621 AM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   CENTERVILLE             44   915 AM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   2 NW CHATHAM            33   728 AM  1/27  ASOS

...BRISTOL COUNTY...
   FALL RIVER              38  1242 AM  1/27  NOS BLTM3
   3 NW NEW BEDFORD        35   152 AM  1/27  ASOS

...DUKES COUNTY...
   3 S VINEYARD HAVEN      46   435 AM  1/27  ASOS

...ESSEX COUNTY...
   ROCKPORT                44   733 AM  1/27  MEDIA
   5 WNW BEVERLY           33   343 PM  1/27  ASOS

...NANTUCKET COUNTY...
   2 ESE NANTUCKET         59   609 AM  1/27  ASOS
   NANTUCKET               40  1006 AM  1/27  NOS NTKM3

...NORFOLK COUNTY...
   3 SSW MILTON            32   355 AM  1/27  ASOS

...PLYMOUTH COUNTY...
   4 SW PLYMOUTH           47   225 AM  1/27  ASOS
   MARSHFIELD              31  1135 AM  1/27  GHG AWOS

...SUFFOLK COUNTY...
   1 N EAST BOSTON         32   541 AM  1/27  ASOS

...WORCESTER COUNTY...
   3 WNW WORCESTER         31  1141 AM  1/27  ASOS

RHODE ISLAND

...ANZ236...
   1 SSW NAYATT            44   430 AM  1/27  NOS CPTR1
   3 ENE KIEFER PARK       39   812 AM  1/27  NOS QPTR1

...KENT COUNTY...
   2 NNW WARWICK           38   441 AM  1/27  ASOS

...NEWPORT COUNTY...
   NEWPORT                 39   542 AM  1/27  NOS NWPR1
   4 NE NEWPORT            37  1257 AM  1/27  ASOS

...WASHINGTON COUNTY...
   NEW SHOREHAM            43  1215 AM  1/27  BID AWOS
   NARRAGANSETT            37   900 AM  1/27  POTTERS COVE NAXR1

******************************************************************


Thanks to our embedded photographers, Tristan (Bourne), Sara (Duxbury Beach), Joe II (Duxbury Beach), Carter (Sandwich), Bill (Duxbury) and Jessica (Bourne).

Our author, in a moment of reflection....

Sunday, January 25, 2015

Blizzard Prep



Oh, what a busy few days your weatherman has coming up. This, for instance, is my day off.

We got the drop on Boston TV stations yesterday warning you about this blizzard. The article we wrote yesterday did more traffic than every other article we have put up on this admittedly-new site... combined... and quadrupled. The article had over 400 likes... our previous high, I think, was 6.

In today's article, we'll kick around a few important things to know regarding this blizzard. Among them are:

- What advisories and warnings do we have?
- When does it start?
- How much snow do we get?
- Will it rain on Cape Cod during the height of the storm?
- Could the storm miss us?
- How bad will the winds be?
- How bad is the coastal flooding threat?
- If we get a rain/snow line, where does it set up?
- School cancellations?
- Power outages?
- Where would a worst-case scenario rank among historic storms?
- Will the Governor issue a driving ban?

Ayup, ol' Steve isn't getting much rest and relaxation this Sunday. I want you to remember these sacrifices that I make for you if the storm misses and we get rain.

Warnings, Watches And Advisories

Well, to start off, the officials have given us a slew of advisories, warnings and watches. We have a Blizzard Watch, a Winter Storm Watch, a Storm Watch (a Storm Watch is for people at sea, it doesn't cancel out the Winter Storm Watch or anything), a Coastal Flood Watch, a High Wind Watch, a Small Craft Advisory and a Special Weather Statement concerning black ice this morning.

Watches are issued when these conditions are possible. They upgrade it to a Warning if the conditions are imminent within 24 hours. We'll probably turn over to Warnings tonight.

Note that, on at least the NWS map, the Blizzard Watch is for the North Shore, Boston, the South Shore, The South Coast, Rhode Island, and southern Connecticut. Cape Cod does not have a Blizzard Watch at the moment.

The Winter Storm Watch extends into Indiana, and runs due East from there. You can trace the future path of the storm just by the advisories being issued.

Speaking of which....

Sagamore Beach, MA


The Path And Nature Of The Storm

The storm will drop into the US, run east to New Jersey or Carolina, emerge offshore and rapidly intensify. It will then move NE towards Nova Scotia.

The snow will start on Long Island at 7 AM Monday, and it should be snowing heavily in Gloucester by 7 PM. Cranberry County will get the party started (I agree, Natasha) in the late morning.

We're pretty cold, so it will start off as snow. As the storm draws up southern ocean moisture, it may shift to rain on Cape Cod. To be honest, I have no idea. Even if it does shift to rain, it will turn back to snow as the storm moves away.

As near as I can tell from the advisories, the rain line will set up around the Cape Cod Canal. At least one local station is giving a circle around Boston 1-3 feet of snow, then calling for a Coating elsewhere. They have Duxbury facing 1-3 feet of snow, while they have Plymouth getting only a coating. Either they lost their mind, or they expect the rain to move into mainland Massachusetts.

Please keep in mind... "rain line" generally means "someone else gets snow, you get rain." Not this time. The rain line which I speak of just means that it will be raining during the height of the storm. If the blizzard conditions hit but it starts raining, there goes your blizzard. You're not getting off the hook, though. The rain will be bracketed by snow, perhaps even a foot of snow on each end.

I'd be one pretty perplexed precipitation prognosticator if Cape Cod went all rain. My own forecast from the top of my head gives them 10-20" of snow. Most local stations aside from Channel 7 give them over a foot of snow.

Everyone else gets snow. The worst of the precipitation will be near the coast, in whatever form it may take. Channel 5 had a line of 24-30" running along the coast from Portsmouth, NH to Plymouth MA. Moving west lowers the totals a bit, with Worcester getting 20" and Providence getting 17".

Channel 4 has 1-2 feet across the state, with a jackpot area running from the Canal to Gloucester, then moving inland at a SE angle through all of Rhode Island into southern Connecticut. They show a sharp cut-off for Cape Cod, and don't think that the Cape will clear a foot.

Accuweather gives Bourne 19.3" of snow, Foxboro gets 23.2", Duxbury gets 22.3", Worcester gets 20.6", Ashland gets 22.9",  Fall River gets 23.2", Brockton gets 23.9", and you get the general idea.

They do have totals dropping on the Cape. Hyannis gets 9.9" of snow, Orleans gets 9.2", and Nantucket gets 9.5". Nantucket is forecast to get ocean effect snow on Wednesday. Forgot to link to those, sorry....

Scusset Beach, MA

Historic Snowstorm?

Boston is forecast to get 28.4" of snow, which puts it in historic territory. Boston has the best historical stats, so let's compare the past and the future. This one could break a record.

Here are the 10 worst snowfall events to hit Boston.

1. February 17-18, 2003 27.5 inches
2. February 6-7, 1978 27.1 inches
3. February 24-27, 1969 26.3 inches
4. March 31-April 1, 1997 25.4 inches
5. January 22-23, 2005 22.5 inches
6. January 20-21, 1978 21.4 inches
7. March 3-5, 1960 19.8 inches
8. February 16-17, 1958 19.4 inches
9. February 8-10, 1994 18.7 inches
10. January 7-8, 1996 18.2 inches
10. December 20-22, 1975 18.2 inches
10. December 26-27, 2010 18.2 inches

Yup, that's not good.

Boston has lower storm totals than her surrounding areas. Monponsett had 38" of snow in 2005. Great Barrington, MA owns the Massachusetts single-event snowfall record at 62 inches in 1995.

Scituate, and just look how close the road and houses are!

Winds, Flooding and Power Outages

Snow will not be our only problem. We will also have the three Ws... Wind, Waves, and When will the power come back on?

Let's start with the winds.

We're looking at 35-45 mph sustained winds for large parts of the storm, which is big trouble. 35 mph is the cutoff point for blizzard conditions. Wind like that, when combined with all of the snow, will reduce visibility to about as far as you can stretch your hand out.

We can have gusts to 60-75 mph, and maybe isolated spots with even higher gusts.

Remember, the Bourne and Sagamore Bridges close when winds reach 75 mph in a hurricane, and hurricanes don't cover the bidges in snow and ice.

That wind will whip the power lines around. If those lines are covered with snow- or worse, ice- they will snap. When that happens, you get a blackout. It will be hard for NSTAR to get their trucks around in a blizzard, so the power will stay out once it goes out.

Lows will be in the teens in the days following the blizzard, and may even hit single digits a week after. That will make some Peopsicles, no doubt.

Even if the power stays on, it won't stop the ocean.

We will have the advantages of a waning new moon (if this storm hit last Tuesday with the new moon, we'd have seen Blizzard of '78 type coastal destruction), which gives us lower tides. Brant Rock had an 11.5 foot tide on the new moon, it will only be 10.1 Tuesday.

The storm will be a slow mover, being close enough to rile the seas on both Monday morning (no flooding then, but the process begins) through maybe Wednesday night. That will build the seas, and built seas have nowhere to go but up against coastal development.

You want to keep an eye on the ocean, because Tuesday's high tide will be at 4:30 in the morning, after 20 inches of snow has fallen. It will be a very difficult time to try to escape. Locals know their beaches better than any weatherman, but the weatherman is urging you to have a plan in place.

We'll try to get some pictures and video up (we have several embedded reporters in areas like Duxbury, Bourne, Plymouth and so forth), but no guarantees. I'll probably be stuck at my night job for a few shifts.

Compared to being isolated from the outside world with no heat in 14 degree weather with the ocean washing through your living room, not seeing my storm pics will be the least of your problems.

Bournedale, MA

School Closures, Driving Ban?

Don't forget that Governor Deval Patrick banned all non-essential in the state of Massachusetts for a much weaker blizzard recently. You could only drive if you were a cop, a firefighter, an EMT, a nurse, or media.

I have a perfectly good Press Pass, which won't matter very much because I drive a Dodge Stratus that probably won't get out of the parking lot for 3 days. I'll walk around a bit, and I'll need a Marylou's coffee badly enough that I'll do some whiteout driving before too long.

Will new Governor Charlie Baker ban driving? Remember, anyone in Boston named Charlie is very much afraid of using the MBTA, for the last one never returned (Oh, he never returned), and his fate is still unlearned.

We also have an army of perfectly capable snowplow guys who have been dying for work in this mild winter we've been having.

Schools will almost certainly be called off for Tuesday, and maybe Wednesday. If one kid can't be guaranteed safe access to the school (even/especially kids who walk to school down snowy sidewalks), the whole district has to cancel.

Some schools, especially on the southern coast of the state, might not be wrong doing a day off or even an early release on Monday. Likewise, a day off or a delayed start looks good for Wednesday.

I'd give a lot of thought to unilaterally declaring a No Schools, All Schools as a parent if your kids might end up getting hauled home on a bus during the start of a blizzard Monday afternoon.

Anyhow....

That's what we have for now.

We'll be back with an update tomorrow morning, but you might want to spend today filling the gas stank, storing some water and having some non-perishable food in the house.

It could end up missing us or giving us rain, but you never know....