Now, we're more than a week away from when we'd need to be worrying about this, but we don't like to have anything sneak up on our readers.
Tropical Storm Matthew formed just east of the Windward Islands today. He's already a very powerful storm, at around 60 MPH. He should blow through the islands tonight and tomorrow, and then move between Hispaniola and South America over the weekend.
The water in this area is very warm, and Matthew should intensify. What he does after that is a bit of a mystery.
The European models drag it into either Florida or the Gulf of Mexico. Not our problem. The GFS model puts it on a run up the Eastern Seaboard. That can be a problem.
It's a problem that looks like this:
Now, we're dealing with a system that is over a week away, and there is a lot of disagreement among the geeks as to what happens to where and when.
There is also this weekend's rainstorm in Massachusetts, which could serve to drag Matthew up here as it pulls away from us.
Even if the storm takes a run up the East Coast, it could hit any Confederate coast state, the DelMarva area or even New Jersey. All of them are more likely to get it than us.
October hurricanes, while unusual, are not without precedent. The Halloween Gale, aka the Perfect Storm, hit at the end of the month.
If it does target us, the due date would be Thursday/Friday.
Here are the zillion spaghetti charts:
